Analysis of the Effect of Variability on the Blood Glucose Prediction Accuracy*

In the artificial pancreas (AP) concept physiological models prove to play an important role. The high complexity of the physiological processes, intrapatient variability, data scarcity and other factors (physical activity, stress, quality of meal) pose difficulties to achieve an accurate, and virtual representation of the patient. In this pilot study, experiment-and patient-related considerations were taken into account during the identification to restrict the parameter space in a realistic way. Effects of the variabilites have been investigated on the prediction accuracy by using sensitivity analysis.