应用系统分析重建制裁影响下的跨境资源流动与研发合作模型

alla a. Nikonova
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摘要

本文的目的是在系统分析的基础上形成评估,以确定在开放经济和开放创新模式框架下,在严厉制裁的情况下,俄罗斯需要与谁互动。方法:系统经济学范式的规定和系统分析的方法应用于经济、商业、国家、科学、技术、基础设施、社会环境。结果:对制裁影响下跨境资源流动和科技合作模式重建的影响条件和因素进行了系统分析。这一假设证实,从长期来看,用中国、印度等发展中国家的高技术产品替代从欧盟进口的高技术产品并不是一种系统性的解决方案,但可以在一定程度上服务于俄罗斯的技术安全;在波动期间保持俄罗斯经济生产周期的稳定。国家间能源资源和商品流动以及研发合作的经验证据说明了这一点。由于形势的不确定性增加,关系因素、各方利益、人为因素对资源流动变化和科技合作性质的影响增强。从系统的角度考虑关系因素影响的各种变体:一方面,作为转向亚洲国家的适应性塑造因素;另一方面,作为破坏性的,其中各方追求自己的利益。结论和相关性:分析结果证实了传统建议的相关性,即基于先进技术和高科技产品的资源平价交换原则,在结构和地理上使跨境互动多样化。分析结果与该领域顶尖科学家和专家的研究结果一致,可用于制定有关反危机政策、国家战略、国际互动和研发合作的敏捷决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Application of systems analysis for reconstruction of the model of cross-border resource flows and collaboration in R&D under the influence of sanctions
Purpose: of the article is to form assessments based on system analysis to determine with whom Russia needs to interact in a situation of severe sanctions both in an open economy and whithin the framework of an open innovation model.Methods: the provisions of the system-economic paradigm and methods of an system analysis are applied to the economy, business, state, scientific, technical, infrastructural, social environment.Results: the results of a system analysis of the conditions and factors influencing the reconstruction of the model of cross-border resource flows and scientific and technical cooperation under the influence of sanctions are presented. The hypothesis is confirmed that the replacement of high-tech imports from the EU with supplies from China, India and other developing countries cannot be considered as a systemic solution in the long term, but can to a certain extent serve the Russia's technological security; maintain the stability of the production cycle in the Russian economy during fluctuations. This is illustrated by empirical evidence for the flow of energy resources and goods between countries and R&D collaboration. Arguments are given to substantiate the hypothesis about the strengthening of the influence of relationship factors, the interests of the parties, the human factor on the change in resource flows and the nature of scientific and technological cooperation due to the growing uncertainty of the situation. Variants of the influence of the relationship factor are considered from a systemic standpoint: on the one hand, as an adaptive, shaping factor of a turn towards Asian countries; on the other hand, as destructive, in which each of the parties pursues its own interests.Conclusions and Relevance: the results of the analysis confirm the relevance of the traditional recommendation to structurally and geographically diversify cross-border interactions based on the principle of a parity exchange of resources for advanced technologies and high-tech goods. The results of the analysis are consistent with the findings of leading scientists and experts in this field and can be used to make agile decisions about anti-crisis policy, national strategies, international interactions, and R&D collaboration.
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