Maximum penetration of intermittent renewable energy in hydrothermal electric power systems based on generation adequacy analysis

The aim of this paper is to make an analysis of the spinning reserve of power generators at the Ecuadorian Electric Power System (National Interconnected System SNI, by its name in Spanish) that will have to be considered to compensate for possible fluctuations caused by future penetration of intermittent renewable energy (IRE). For this purpose, the stochastic conventional generation models must firstly be determined based on monthly probability distribution functions (PDF). To this aim, a novel methodology to determine an “average” probability distribution function, representing the behavior of the entire year of each plant, has been proposed. This methodology was developed by using the mathematical concept of convolution. The determined generation models together with the load model and the wind generation model are processed via Monte Carlo simulation in order to determine reliability indices for the SNI. Finally, based on the stochastic generation adequacy results, a novel methodology for estimating the maximum penetration of IRE in hydrothermal electric power systems is proposed. The obtained results allow recommending appropriate levels of wind generation installed capacity and suggesting proper operational actions in order to ensure sufficient reserve capacity to face fluctuations caused by IRE.