О.В. Длугопольський, А.І. Баранець
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摘要

乌克兰国民经济美元化作为一种与劳动力迁移过程密切相关的自然现象进行了研究。分析了国内经济美元化的类型和方向。对2014-2020年乌克兰平均年美元化动态的评估,汇率动态,私人汇款到乌克兰的动态进行了讨论。据证实,离开乌克兰的乌克兰人比进入该国的外国公民多2.5至3倍。确定了乌克兰移民问题的主要原因及其对国内经济美元化的影响。有证据表明,通过国际移徙者输入乌克兰领土的外币要么不兑换本国货币,要么从主要雇主国的货币兑换成美元/欧元。这主要是由于民众不信任国内的政治和经济改革,因此也不信任格里夫纳。外币的买卖余额与乌克兰经济的美元化程度,以及外币的买卖余额与外币存款的份额之间,已经建立了反比关系。本文既考虑了导致美元化加强的因素,也考虑了制约美元化的因素。可以确定,经济美元化的关键问题是乌克兰失去了最重要的目标——货币政策及其目标,因为乌克兰中央银行失去了影响经济中货币供应从而确保本国货币稳定的能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Доларизація національної економіки та трудова міграція: аспекти взаємозв’язку (кейс України)
The dollarization of the national economy of Ukraine as a natural phenomenon in close connection with the processes of labor migration is studied. Types and directions of dollarization of the domestic economy are analyzed. An assessment of the dynamics of average annual dollarization in Ukraine in 2014-2020, the dynamics of the exchange rate, the dynamics of private remittances to Ukraine are discussed. It is substantiated that the number of Ukrainians who left Ukraine is 2.5-3 times higher than the number of foreign citizens who entered the country. The main causes of migration problems in Ukraine and their impact on the dollarization of the domestic economy are identified. It is substantiated that foreign currency imported into the territory of Ukraine through international migrants is either not exchanged for the national currency, or is converted from the currencies of the leading countries of employers into dollars/euros. This is mainly due to the population's distrust of political and economic reforms within the country, and, accordingly, to the hryvnia. An inverse relationship has been established between the balance of purchase and sale of foreign currency and the level of dollarization of the economy in Ukraine, as well as the balance of purchase and sale of foreign currency and the share of foreign currency deposits. Both the factors that cause the strengthening of dollarization and the factors that constrain it are considered. It is determined that the key problem of dollarization of the economy is that Ukraine loses the most important target - monetary policy and its targets, as the NBU loses the ability to influence the money supply in the economy, and thus ensure stability of the national currency.
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