使用智能和分析方法对标准情况下的决策支持系统模型进行转换

V. Antonov, K. Konev, G. Kulikov, J. Scientific
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摘要

本文讨论了如何在信息量相对较大的情况下提高决策支持活动的效率。研究相关性与控制对象的复杂性增加有关,这导致决策者基于个人经验的决策效率下降,甚至完全不可能。本文的目的是分析决策者面临的问题,并在典型情况下创造提高决策有效性的方法。本文考察了决策支持系统智能子系统的主要组成部分对分析工具的需求,并形成了有效形成决策信息支持场景情景所必需的方法交互结构。为了实现这一目标,采用了一种基于智能组件的决策支持方法,旨在创建有效的基础设施来支持决策;识别和分类方法,旨在将观察到的情况的特征(状态)与知识库中存储的典型情况的特征进行最准确和正确的比较;关联方法旨在发现情境特征与场景之间的依赖关系,以解决与这些情境相关的问题;一种构建主体质量测量的方法,用于形成预测模型,以评估所选场景对解决当前情况的符合程度。因此,确定在典型情况下作出决策的一个重要方面是最准确地查明情况,为执行这种情况的解决办法选择最佳方案,并分析选定的一套措施的后果。为了解决这些问题,形成了一种识别情景的方法,一种寻找解决方案的方法和一种预测所选方案有效性的定性方法。本文的结论是,通过使用所提出的方法和实现具有智能组件的决策支持系统,可以改进基于积累经验的决策活动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
TRANSFORMATION OF THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODEL FOR STANDARD SITUATIONS USING INTELLECTUAL AND ANALYTICAL METHODS
The article discusses the issues of improving the efficiency of decision support activities on a relatively large amount of information. The research relevance is associated with the increasing complexity of control objects, which leads to a decrease in the efficiency of decision-making based on the personal experience of decision-makers, up to complete impossibility. The purpose of the ar-ticle is to analyze the problems faced by decision-makers and the creation of methods to improve the effectiveness of decision-making in typical situations. The article examines the main compo-nents of the intelligent subsystem of the decision support system, which require the use of analytical tools, and also forms the methods interaction structure necessary for the effective formation of sce-narios of information support for decision making. To achieve the goals, a decision support method based on an intelligent component was used, which is aimed at creating an effective infrastructure to sup-port decision-making; methods of identification and categorization, designed to implement the most accurate and correct comparison of the characteristics (state) of the observed situation and the characteristics of a typical situation stored in the knowledge base; correlation methods aimed at finding dependencies between the characteristics of situations and scenarios to solve problems associated with these situa-tions; a method for constructing subject qualimetry, used to form a predictive model to assess the degree of compliance of the selected scenario for solving the current situation. As a result, it was de-termined that an important aspect of decision-making in typical situations is the most accurate identification of the state of the situation, the choice of the best scenario for implementing the solu-tion for this situation and the analysis of the consequences of the selected set of measures. To solve these problems, a method for identifying a situation, a method for finding solution scenarios and a qualimetric method for predicting the effectiveness of the selected scenario have been formed. The article concludes that decision-making activities based on the accumulated experience can be im-proved by using the proposed methods and implementing a decision support system with an intelli-gent component.
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