管理许多同时发生的系统不确定性

L. Lista, A. Iorio, A. Iorio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近对高能物理测量的统计评估,特别是在大型强子对撞机上的统计评估,需要同时仔细评估许多系统不确定性的来源。虽然统计处理的基本方面现在得到了巩固,无论是使用频率主义者还是贝叶斯方法,但在结合多个控制区域和衰减通道的分析中,对许多不确定性来源及其相应的讨厌参数的管理,在实践中可能会带来具有挑战性的实施问题,这使得分析基础设施复杂且难以管理,最终导致系统处理的简化。结果解释的局限性。将讨论典型的案例,考虑到最流行的实现工具RooStats,以及在未来的软件实现中改进此类案例管理的可能想法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Managing Many Simultaneous Systematic Uncertainties
Recent statistical evaluations for High-Energy Physics measurements, in particular those at the Large Hadron Collider, require careful evaluation of many sources of systematic uncertainties at the same time. While the fundamental aspects of the statistical treatment are now consolidated, both using a frequentist or a Bayesian approach, the management of many sources of uncertainties and their corresponding nuisance parameters in analyses that combine multiple control regions and decay channels, in practice, may pose challenging implementation issues, that make the analysis infrastructure complex and hard to manage, eventually resulting in simplifications in the treatment of systematics, and in limitations to the result interpretation. Typical cases will be discussed, having in mind the most popular implementation tool, RooStats, with possible ideas about improving the management of such cases in future software implementations.
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