印度和巴基斯坦核理论的比较分析

V. Sotnikov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文对印度和巴基斯坦的核主义及其对南亚战争、和平与稳定的意义进行了讨论和分析。本文还分析了印度和巴基斯坦的核理论,以显示这些国家在阐述和实施适当的核理论时所面临的挑战,以及这对该地区核稳定的影响。我们认为,从地区安全的角度来看,印度和巴基斯坦的理论和姿态都是有问题的,因为它们要么在如何解决关键的威慑相关问题上模棱两可,和/或证明安全问题与它们旨在处理的目标之间的严重不匹配,以及核武器在军事和政治战略中的作用。因此,随着印度和巴基斯坦核理论和姿态的演变,如果不重新评估新德里和伊斯兰堡的理论问题,次大陆发生螺旋式核军备竞赛的风险可能会增加。在重新考虑各自的核理论时,双方有理由更明确、更少野心。然而,我们认为,这些国家的障碍是可以克服的,它们各自的核理论有可能轻松地发生这种变化,印度的变化可能比巴基斯坦更大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDIA’ S AND PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINES
This article offers a discussion and analysis of nuclear doctrine of India and Pakistan and their significance for war, peace and stability in South Asia. The analysis nuclear doctrines of India and Pakistan is also given to show the challenges these states have faced in articulating and implementing a proper nuclear doctrine, and the implications of this for nuclear stability in the region We argue that both the Indian and Pakistani doctrines and postures are problematic from a regional security perspective because they are either ambiguous about how to address crucial deterrence related issues, and/or demonstrate a severe mismatch between the security problems and goals they are designed to deal with, and also the role of nuclear weapons in military and political strategy. Consequently, as both Indian and Pakistani nuclear doctrines and postures evolve, the risks of a spiraling nuclear arms race in the subcontinent are likely to increase without a reassessment of doctrinal issues in New Delhi and Islamabad. A case is made for more clarity and less ambition from both sides in reconsidering of their respective nuclear doctrines. However we believe the barriers in each of these countries can be overcome and there is likelihood of such changes being made in their respective nuclear doctrines at the ease with which they can be made greater in India than in Pakistan.
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