外商直接投资溢出效应分析——以苏州为例

Tao Yu, Qiang Wu, Ying Hong
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摘要

本文基于苏州市1991 - 2008年的时间序列数据,运用ADF检验、格兰杰因果检验和回归方法对外商直接投资的溢出效应进行实证研究。结果表明,外商直接投资对GDP具有溢出效应,是苏州GDP增长的格兰杰原因。同时,反比关系并不成立。我们还发现,在短期内,外商直接投资对苏州市GDP有显著的正向促进作用,但从长期来看,外商直接投资对苏州市GDP有负向影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis on the Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment: Case of Suzhou
Based on time series data of Suzhou from 1991 to 2008, this paper carries out empirical research on the spillover effect of foreign direct investment by using ADF test, Granger causality test and regression method. The result shows that foreign direct investment has spillover effect to GDP which is the Granger cause of GDP in Suzhou. Meanwhile, the inverse relationship does not hold. We also find in the short run, foreign direct investment can increase GDP significantly and positively, but in the long run, it has negative effect on GDP of Suzhou.
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