高生活——世界杯对经济拉动的新经验证据

M. Fett
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引用次数: 2

摘要

世界杯能提振经济吗?东道国能否利用“高端生活”?下面的论文发展,除了有效的计量经济学分析,因素φ为世界杯对人均GDP增长的具体影响。这种计量经济学方法使用多元回归模型。首先是固定效应ols估计,然后是GMM估计,以提供详细概述世界杯对人均GDP增长及其三年移动平均值的具体影响的可能性。我的调查涵盖了1962年至2010年的世界杯。基于深入的分析和结构断裂的证明,这一时期随后被分为两个子时期:1962-1986年世界杯和1990-2010年世界杯。正如同行评议的研究先前所述,在整个时期,主机变量φ没有显著的结果。在考虑到结构性断裂后,结果发生了变化:1990年之前的时代显示出统计上显著的负结果,每年(-4.6),而1990年之后的时代显示出统计上非常显著的正结果:+1.1。这些创新的发现表明,考虑1990年世界杯的结构性中断对于分析经济影响是必要的。原因可能是比赛越来越受欢迎,但主要是比赛的商业化超越了娱乐世界。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
High Life – New Empirical Evidence on the Economic Boost of the FIFA World Cup
Does the FIFA World Cup boost the economy? Can a host country capitalise on a ‘high life’? The following paper develops, besides a valid econometric analysis, the factor ϕ for World Cup-specific effects on GDP per capita growth.This econometric approach uses multiple regression models. Both, first a Fixed-Effects-OLS and then GMM estimations are used to render the possibility to outline in detail World Cup-specific effects on GDP per capita growth and its three-year moving average. My investigation period covers the World Cups between 1962 and 2010. Based on in-depth analysis and the proof of a structural break, the period is subsequently split into two subperiods: World Cups 1962-1986 and World Cups 1990-2010. As peer-reviewed research has stated previously, there is no significant result for host variable ϕ for the whole period. After accounting for the structural break, results change: Pre-1990 era shows statistically significant negative results, annually (-4.6), whereas the post-1990 era shows statistically highly significant positive results: +1.1.These innovative findings indicate, accounting for a structural break at World Cup 1990 is necessary for the analysis of economic effects. Reasons can be the increased popularity of the tournament, but mainly the commercialisation of the tournament transcending into the world of entertainment.
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