战后经济复苏:影响乌克兰的主要因素及全球经验

A. Danylenko, Galyna Yershova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍。乌克兰持续的敌对行动削弱了乌克兰独立可持续经济增长的潜力。主权债务负担正在显著增加,生产设施正在被摧毁,与此同时,该国的工业潜力也在被摧毁,大多数被迫难民从国外迅速返回乌克兰的可能性正在下降。对这些挑战的反应应包括采用最积极的方法执行旨在确保乌克兰经济独立和福祉的国家政策。克服已确定的问题的先决条件不仅是结束乌克兰领土上的敌对行动,而且是实施一种鼓励企业恢复的制度,提高其生产的盈利能力,以及国家集中精力实现优先目标,其中,当然,主要目标将是确保国家的安全和社会和经济复苏。问题陈述。确定国家在战后重建中的作用,确定在乌克兰经济发展中运用国家影响手段的可能性。目的。考虑到乌克兰战前经济发展的具体情况,并根据战后世界经济复苏的经验,充实有效的国家工具包,实施该工具包不仅可以加快经济复苏,而且可以保证发展的质量。方法。这项研究是在系统的方法、客观和批判性分析的原则、分析和统计数据的系统化以及对影响经济发展的外部和内部因素的后果的科学洞察的基础上进行的。结果。确定了有助于重新启动战后经济、改变其结构和快速经济发展的主要有效工具。作为对恢复乌克兰经济的国内国家举措的分析的一部分,已概述了有助于加强商业活动并确保其更广泛地获得长期债务资本的优先步骤。合理实施指导性规划、改革国家吸引外资政策、内部刺激企业活动制度、实施投资风险保险等。有人强调有必要修改该国经济发展的优先次序,这不仅要考虑到当前的现实,而且要集中注意乌克兰未来的战略目标。结论。国家在振兴国民经济的同时,面临着许多复杂的任务,需要政府和社会共同努力。世界战后重建的经验证明,即使在悲剧发生之后,也有可能建立一个现代化和繁荣的国家。这种愿望的实现可以在对国家未来的清晰愿景和规划的基础上实现,并逐步实施预期的计划,这必须明确考虑到过去经济积累的系统性问题(固定投资水平低,生产基础过时,企业创新能力低,实际缺乏获得廉价长期信贷的机会,缺乏吸引力的投资环境,财产权不安全等)。战后恢复计划应以建立市场经济、解决体制问题、促进良性竞争和发展高技术产业的原则为基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post-war economic recovery: main factors of impact and global experience for Ukraine
Introduction. The ongoing hostilities in Ukraine reduce Ukraine's potential for independent sustainable economic growth. The sovereign debt burden is significantly increasing, production facilities are being destroyed, and with them the industrial potential of the country, the possibility for a quick return of the majority of forced refugees to Ukraine from abroad is declining. The response to these challenges should include the application of the most active methods of implementing state policy aimed at ensuring the economic independence and well-being of Ukraine. The prerequisite for overcoming the identified problems will be not only the end of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, but also the implementation of a system that encourages businesses to recover, increase the profitability of their production, as well as the concentration of the state’s attention on the achievement of priority goals, among which, of course, the main one will be ensuring security and social and economic recovery of the country. Problem Statement. Determining the role of the state in post-war reconstruction, substantiating the possibilities of applying instruments of state impact on the development of the economy of Ukraine. Purpose. Substantiating, taking into account the specifics of the pre-war development of the economy of Ukraine and based on the world experience of post-war recovery, an effective state toolkit, the implementation of which will not only speed up the recovery of the economy, but also ensure the quality of the development. Methods. The research was conducted on the basis of a systematic approach, the principles of objectivity and critical analysis, systematization of analytical and statistical data, and scientific insight into the consequences of external and internal factors affecting the development of the economy. Results. The main effective tools that contributed to restarting post-war economies, changing their structure and rapid economic development are identified. As part of the analysis of domestic state initiatives to restore the economy of Ukraine, priority steps have been outlined that will contribute to the intensification of business activity and ensure its broader access to long-term debt capital. Reasonable expediency of implementation of indicative planning, reform of the state policy of attracting foreign investments, internal system of stimulating business activity, implementation of investment risk insurance, etc. The need to revise the priorities of the country's economic development, which would take into account not only current realities, but also focus on the strategic goals of Ukraine's future, was emphasized. Conclusions. While aiming at the recovery of the national economy, the state faces many complex tasks, the solution of which requires the concentration of efforts of both the government and society in general. The world experience of post-war reconstruction proves that even after tragedies, it is possible to establish a modernized and prosperous state. The implementation of such aspirations can be materialized on the base of a clear vision and planning of the future of the country with the step-by-step implementation of the intended plans, which must definitely take into account the systemic problems that the economy had accumulated in the past (low level of fixed investments, outdated production base, low innovativeness of enterprises, practical lack of access to cheap long-term credit, unattractive investment environment, insecurity of property rights, etc.). The post-war recovery plan should be based on the principles of building a market economy, solving systemic problems, stimulating healthy competition and developing high-techindustry.
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