Risk Factors: Method of Determination and Evaluation, Prognosis in Medicine (Literature Review; Examples of Use in Own Clinical Practice) – first notice

Context. Despite the latest advances in modern medicine, the direct etiological factors of many diseases remain unknown or it is impossible to determine the significance of each of them in their occurrence, so the theory of risk factors is extremely relevant for both theoretical and practical medicine. Besides, there often occur situations in which it is necessary to determine the optimal tactics of patient care, because preventive, curative and rehabilitation activities of the doctor require timely prediction of the occurrence probability, further course of the pathological process, its complications, recurrences due to certain environmental factors, threatening and terminal conditions, side effects of drugs. Therefore, the need for a practical solution to these problems has become the basis for the theory of risk factors and prognosis methods. Objective. To determine the significance of risk factors and methods of their calculation and evaluation, prognosis in medicine, using literature sources, provide specific examples of their use in one’s own clinical practice. Materials and methods. Content analysis, method of systemic and comparative analysis, bibliosemantic method of studying the current scientific researches concerning the investigation of the importance of risk factors and a technique of their calculation and estimation, prognosis in medicine were used. The sources were searched for in scientometric databases: PubMed, Medline, Springer, Google Scholar, Research Gate by keywords: risk factors, one-way analysis, multi-factor analysis. 54 literary sources in English and Ukrainian, which highlight the importance of risk factors and methods of their calculation and evaluation, prognosis in medicine were selected and analyzed to describe the results of their use in our own clinical practice. Results. The concept of risk, as the probability of an adverse event or outcome, is most often used in analytical studies, which are planned to identify the causes and their prevalence of certain conditions. Risk cannot be measured directly by the results of information evaluation in one person, but is calculated on the basis of selective observation of a group of persons who are under the influence (exposed group) of a certain factor. Risk factors are potentially pathogenic factors, in contact with which a person may develop a disease. A full analysis of pathological processes, assessment of risk factors and actual risks are impossible without prognosis, as well as multivariate analysis, which is often based on the probabilistic method of A. Wald or the survival curves construction. In practical health care, cases of medical and social research and in clinical studies, it is often necessary to identify the trends (predict) in changes of a certain condition. Conclusions. Determining the risk factors, calculating the actual risks and prognosis play an important role in medicine, because in the doctor’s practice there are daily situations that need to determine the optimal tactics taking into account trends, course, severity and results of treatment. Therefore, their definition/calculation must be clear and understandable. Depending on the case, the doctor can use the analysis of the score for certain factors, create risk groups, develop a monitoring plan, etc. As a result, it becomes possible to create a plan of preventive measures and timely correction of treatment.