Development of a predictive model of an uneven incoming flow of a transport and logistics center

The article discusses the problems of uneven arrival of vehicles at the transport and logistics center (TLC) and identifies operational problems that arise at the time of cargo transshipment between different modes of transport. The effects of the irrational use of loading and unloading machines and ways to reduce the identified negative impact are determined. The main approaches to modeling the moments of arrival of vehicles in the preparation of technological documents for the operation of the logistics complex (contact schedule of the complex, the schedule of trains on the adjacent section) and the daily schedule of the work of the junction station are highlighted. The uniform supply of vehicles, characteristic of dispatching the supply of modes of transport, is relevant for modeling the operation of the supply of groups of wagons to the terminal. In case of uneven arrival of vehicles, areas of concentrated and sparse supply of vehicles are allocated. For these periods, the reasons for downtime and irrational increase in operating costs for processing one ton or intermodal unit of cargo are determined. In order to determine the nature of intra-day irregularity of the supply of vehicles, a method has been developed based on identifying the functional dependence of the arrival of vehicles during the day and constructing an appropriate histogram of the distribution of the arrival of vehicles corresponding to the selected time intervals during the day, which allows us to get a general idea of the nature of the arrival of modes of transport of various parameters. Modeling the operation of the terminal and logistics complex in the market economy with unpredictable moments of arrival of vehicles and uneven arrival of transport, special attention should be paid to the mode of operation of loading and unloading machines and crews at different times of the day when developing the technology. The allocation of periods of condensed and sparse supply of transport enables us to adjust the operation of the terminal to optimize operating costs and reduce the total cost of cargo processing, and the attraction of additional processing capacities during peak periods will minimize downtime of vehicles waiting for processing.