G. Kolodko
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摘要

在人类历史上,从来没有一个国家像1989年至2020年的中俄两国那样,在一代人的短暂生活中,为如此多的人带来了如此大规模的相互经济关系变化。两国都在经历深刻的结构和制度变革,但前者在发展和追赶发达经济体方面取得了令人印象深刻的成果,而后者的成就却非常有限。中国的生产成倍增长,成为世界经济强国,而俄罗斯经济增长缓慢,在全球化进程中扮演着次要角色。在短短几年内,中国人民的生产水平和生活水平将首先与俄罗斯持平,然后超过俄罗斯。如果不考虑这两位政治家的思想和行动的影响,就不可能理解最近世界经济中发生的结构性变化的本质。几十年前作出的决定的影响今天仍然存在。在后一种情况下,他们把俄罗斯和其他后苏联共和国带到了一个完全不同的方向,而不是他们的设计者所设想的方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economics and politics of the great change: Mikhail Gorbachev versus Deng Xiaoping
In the history of mankind, there has never been a case where, in a brief episode of the life of one generation, mutual economic relations have changed on such a large scale for so many people as they did in China and Russia in 1989-2020. Both countries are undergoing profound structural and institutional changes, but while the former recorded impressive results in terms of developing and catching up with advanced economies, the latter’s achievements have been very modest. While China has multiplied production to become a world economic power, Russia's economy has grown modestly and plays a minor role in the globalization process. In just a few years, the level of production and the standard of living of the Chinese population will first equalize and then exceed the level achieved by Russia. This happened due to many factors – from the traditional cultural heritage to geopolitical conditions, from the legacy from the previous state socialism to different natural resources bases – however, the nature and duration of the political leadership of Deng Xiaoping in China and Mikhail Gorbachev in Russia were of fundamental importance. Without taking into account the influence of the thoughts and actions of these two statesmen, it is impossible to understand the essence of tectonic changes that have occurred in the world economy recently. While Deng Xiaoping prioritized pro-growth-oriented economic reforms, while doing little in the realm of political liberalization, Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to combine political and economic liberalization, but failed to do so. The effects of decisions made several decades ago are still felt today. Evidently, Deng Xiaoping's approach proved to be more effective than Gorbachev's reforms. In the latter case, they took Russia and other post-Soviet republics in a completely different direction than that assumed by their architect.
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