基于贸易总额时间序列数据的东南亚国家聚类研究

Afrimayani, A. Ahmad, H. Yozza, D. Devianto
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摘要

东盟贸易总额是对东盟各国贸易发展情况进行简要描述的工具。在2025年,通过货物贸易的自由流动,实现东盟经济的凝聚力和一体化。采用贸易总额时间序列数据的分层聚类方法,将东盟国家分为与《东盟统计年鉴2018》2008-2017年年度货物贸易总额具有较强相似性和特征的三组。根据时间序列数据对应的距离进行聚类分析。第一个集群由文莱达鲁萨兰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚和泰国组成,这些国家与其他东盟国家的贸易总额足够高。第二组国家包括菲律宾。此外,第三个集群包括柬埔寨、越南、老挝和缅甸。与其他东盟国家相比,第二集群的贸易总额中等,第三集群的贸易总额相当低。通过对东盟国家贸易总量集群的表现,有望看到东盟国家货物贸易发展的情况,这种情况必须由东盟在增加货物贸易政策上加以考虑。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THE CLUSTERING OF SOUTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES BASED ON TIME SERIES DATA OF TOTAL TRADE
ASEAN total trade is an instrument to provide a brief description of the development of trade in each ASEAN country. In order to realize a cohesive and integrated ASEAN economy through the free flow of goods trade in 2025.The hierarchical cluster method for times series data of total trade is used to grouping ASEAN countries into three groups with strong similarities and characteristics to the annual total trade in goods from 2008-2017 from the ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2018. The cluster analysis by distance corresponding to time series data is performed. The first cluster consist of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand which had a high enough total trade among other ASEAN countries. The second cluster consists of the Philippines. Furthermore, the third cluster consists of Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. The second cluster has medium total trade and the third cluster has a fairly low total trade compared to other ASEAN countries. The performance total trade clustering in ASEAN countries is expected to be able to see the situation of the development of goods trade in ASEAN countries, this situation must be considered by ASEAN policies in increasing trade in goods.
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