老工业区青年迁移偏好研究(以伏尔加格勒地区为例)

O. Akimova, S. Volkov, Anna Bobrikova, I. Kalmykova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目前,俄罗斯大部分老工业区都面临着包括年轻人在内的劳动人口外流的问题。人力资本的外流不仅威胁着经济发展的长期经济衰退,而且还威胁着“萎缩”的老工业区内部社会紧张局势的加剧。劳动人口外流和工作空间萎缩的问题也是伏尔加格勒地区的典型问题。本研究的主要目的是分析伏尔加格勒地区年轻人(百岁一代)的移民偏好,找出促进和抑制该地区移民的因素。本文试图在统计数据的基础上证明伏尔加格勒地区是一个老工业区,并通过对年轻人的调查分析伏尔加格勒地区是如何因移民而萎缩的。实证数据是通过对伏尔加格勒地区17 - 27岁青年的调查获得的。该调查于2022年3月14日至4月2日在谷歌表格上以在线问卷的形式进行。这项研究涉及来自伏尔加格勒8所教育机构的976名学生。将获得的结果与文章作者分析的统计数据进行比较,可以记录年轻人由于经济因素和发展问题而不愿意留在伏尔加格勒地区。不愿留在伏尔加格勒地区的主要原因是:低工资、就业问题和缺乏职业发展。由于伏尔加格勒地区经济增长放缓,年轻人对工资和雇主真正机会的需求存在巨大滞后,这迫使年轻人离开俄罗斯前往更发达的地区。该地区的雇主无法向年轻工人提供高工资,而年轻人也没有准备好在这样的条件下工作。阻止大多数人搬家的唯一因素是年轻人无法离开的亲戚和朋友的存在。如果在该地区创造新的就业机会,公民的福利水平就会提高,社会基础设施就会发展,那么城市中年轻人口的流失就可以停止。这项研究的结果对区域和联邦各级负责区域发展的官员都是有用的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research of Youth Migration Preferences in an Old Industrial Region (By the Example of Volgograd Region)
Currently, most of old industrial regions in Russia are faced with the problem of the outflow of the working population, including young people. The outflow of human capital threatens not only with a long-term economic decline in economic development, but also with an increase in social tension within the “shrinking” old industrial region. The problem of the outflow of the working population and shrinkage of the working space is also typical of Volgograd region. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the migration preferences of young people (generation of centennials) in the Volgograd region, to identify stimulating and restraining factors for the migration from the region. The article attempts to prove, on the basis of statistical data that the Volgograd region is an old industrial region and analyze, based on a survey of young people how it shrinks due to their migration. Empirical data were obtained in the course of a survey of young people from 17 to 27 years old in Volgograd region. The survey was conducted in the form of an online questionnaire on the Google Forms from March 14th to April 2nd 2022. The study involved 976 students from 8 educational institutions of Volgograd. Comparison of the results obtained with the statistical data analyzed by the authors of the article made it possible to record the reluctance of young people to stay in Volgograd region due to economic factors and development problems. The key reasons for unwillingness to stay in Volgograd region are: low wages, problems with employment and lack of career growth. There is a huge lag in the needs of young people in terms of wages and real opportunities of employers due to the slowdown in economic growth in Volgograd region, which is forcing young people to leave for more developed regions of the country. Employers in the region cannot offer high wages to young workers, and young people are not ready to work under such conditions. The only factor that keeps the majority from moving is the presence of relatives and friends whom young people cannot leave. If new jobs were created in the region, the level of well-being of citizens increased, social infrastructure developed, and then the loss of the young population of the city could be stopped. The results of this study can be useful to officials responsible for regional development at both the regional and federal levels.
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