电信业的发展是否导致土耳其经济增长的索洛悖论?

Huriye Gonca Di̇ler
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摘要

电信基础设施不仅对国内增长至关重要,而且对于将信贷与国际商品和金融市场相结合也至关重要,例如外国投资的顺畅流动,促进净出口的正价值,以及增加经济GDP的附加值。在这项研究中,固定电话线在土耳其共和国期间,是为了调查是否移动电话和影响经济增长的电信部门显示互联网连接的增长。在我们的研究中,普及率代表了电信行业的发展。普及率的定义是每100人中固定电话和移动电话用户的数量。为了衡量土耳其的渗透率,我们使用了固定电话、移动电话用户和互联网用户总数与人口的比率,同时考虑到移动通信和互联网开始的日期。经济增长是以国内生产总值的变化率来表示的。本研究中使用的数据涵盖了1935年至2017年的年度数据。在考察了一系列变量的平稳性之后,我们检验了Toda-Yamamoto因果检验与渗透率和GDP变化率系列之间的因果关系。分析结果显示,土耳其电信的发展并不影响经济增长。根据这一结果,索洛悖论在土耳其所考察的时期是有效的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Do the Developments in Telecommunication Leads to the Solow Paradox on Economic Growth in Turkey?
Telecommunications infrastructure is critical not only for domestic growth, but also for combining credit with international commodity and financial markets, such as the smooth flow of foreign investment, facilitating the positive value of net exports, and increasing the added value in the economy's GDP. In this study, fixed telephone lines in the period since the Republic of Turkey, is to investigate whether mobile phone and affect the economic growth of the telecommunications sector showing growth in internet connection. In our study, the penetration rate represents the development of telecommunications industry. Penetration rate is defined as the number of fixed line and mobile phone subscribers per 100 people. In order to measure the penetration rate in Turkey, we have used the ratio of the total number of fixed line, mobile subscribers and internet users to the population, taking into account the dates when mobile communication and the internet started. Economic growth is represented as the rate of change to Gross Domestic Product. The data used in this study cover an annual period 1935-2017. After investigating the stationarity of the series of variables, a causal relationship between the Toda-Yamamoto causality test and the penetration rate and GDP change rate series was examined. The findings of the analysis, the development of telecommunications in Turkey revealed that does not affect economic growth. According to this result, the Solow paradox is valid in the period examined in Turkey.
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