[Development of a Risk Prediction Model and a Simple Assessment Sheet for Cold Disorder (Hiesho) in Middle-aged and Older Adults].

Objectives: In this study, we aimed to develop a risk prediction model and a simple assessment sheet for cold disorder (hiesho) in middle-aged and older adults.

Methods: The 889 participants in this study were from a community-dwelling general population (mean age, 62.4±8.8 years). The skin surface temperatures of the face and hands of the participants were measured by thermography. The cold disorder was objectively defined as having a temperature difference of ≥8°C between the forehead and fingertips. Data on the body regions with cold perception and the various concomitant signs were collected by a self-administered questionnaire and structured interviews.

Results: The objectively assessed cold disorder was observed in 22.7% of participants and strongly associated with coldness of the back of the hand, palms, fingers, dorsal torso, toes, and soles of the feet. Its prevalence was found to increase with the number of signs of coldness. Older age, being female, low body mass index, hypertension, anemia, and physical inactivity were identified as potential risk factors. A logistic model for predicting the cold disorder was designed on the basis of the perceived cold, accompanying signs, and risk factors. The model showed good discrimination (area under the curve=0.737) and calibration capabilities (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.426). On the basis of this prediction model, a simple assessment sheet was developed to estimate the individual risk of experiencing the cold disorder, in middle-aged and older adults.

Conclusions: With the proposed risk prediction model showing good discrimination capability, the assessment sheet may serve as a prescreening tool to evaluate the potential of middle-aged and older population to develop the cold disorder.