arXiv - QuantFin - Economics最新文献_第3页

AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online Labor Platform 人工智能与就业：拐点到来了吗？来自在线劳动力平台的证据

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: arxiv-2312.04180

Dandan Qiao, Huaxia Rui, Qian Xiong

{"title":"AI and Jobs: Has the Inflection Point Arrived? Evidence from an Online Labor Platform","authors":"Dandan Qiao, Huaxia Rui, Qian Xiong","doi":"arxiv-2312.04180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.04180","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines or software to\u0000mimic or even surpass human intelligence in a given cognitive task. While\u0000humans learn by both induction and deduction, the success of current AI is\u0000rooted in induction, relying on its ability to detect statistical regularities\u0000in task input -- an ability learnt from a vast amount of training data using\u0000enormous computation resources. We examine the performance of such a\u0000statistical AI in a human task through the lens of four factors, including task\u0000learnability, statistical resource, computation resource, and learning\u0000techniques, and then propose a three-phase visual framework to understand the\u0000evolving relation between AI and jobs. Based on this conceptual framework, we\u0000develop a simple economic model of competition to show the existence of an\u0000inflection point for each occupation. Before AI performance crosses the\u0000inflection point, human workers always benefit from an improvement in AI\u0000performance, but after the inflection point, human workers become worse off\u0000whenever such an improvement occurs. To offer empirical evidence, we first\u0000argue that AI performance has passed the inflection point for the occupation of\u0000translation but not for the occupation of web development. We then study how\u0000the launch of ChatGPT, which led to significant improvement of AI performance\u0000on many tasks, has affected workers in these two occupations on a large online\u0000labor platform. Consistent with the inflection point conjecture, we find that\u0000translators are negatively affected by the shock both in terms of the number of\u0000accepted jobs and the earnings from those jobs, while web developers are\u0000positively affected by the very same shock. Given the potentially large\u0000disruption of AI on employment, more studies on more occupations using data\u0000from different platforms are urgently needed.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138554783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition 在中国电力零净转型过程中，电力转型速度不确定情况下早期终端电气化的二氧化碳减排效果稳健

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: arxiv-2312.04332

Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer

{"title":"Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition","authors":"Chen Chris Gong, Falko Ueckerdt, Christoph Bertram, Yuxin Yin, David Bantje, Robert Pietzcker, Johanna Hoppe, Michaja Pehl, Gunnar Luderer","doi":"arxiv-2312.04332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.04332","url":null,"abstract":"Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply\u0000and end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric\u0000vehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically\u0000and institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we\u0000analyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use\u0000electrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show\u0000that even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification\u0000rate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity\u0000of typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with\u0000incumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to\u0000efficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in\u0000an additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{deg}C\u0000(2{deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a\u0000power sector transition without unexpected delays.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138554126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Feasibility of Establishing A Nuclear Presence at Western Michigan University 在西密歇根大学建立核存在的可行性

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: arxiv-2312.03249

Andrew Thomas Goheen, Zayon Deshon Mobley-Wright, Rayne Symone Strother, Ryan Thomas Guthrie

引用次数: 0

Exposing Disparities in Flood Adaptation for Equitable Future Interventions 揭示洪水适应方面的差异，促进未来公平的干预措施

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: arxiv-2312.03843

Lidia Cano Pecharroman, ChangHoon Hahn

{"title":"Exposing Disparities in Flood Adaptation for Equitable Future Interventions","authors":"Lidia Cano Pecharroman, ChangHoon Hahn","doi":"arxiv-2312.03843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.03843","url":null,"abstract":"As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare\u0000for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all\u0000communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not\u0000only on their overall effectiveness but also on whether their benefits are felt\u0000across all communities. We illustrate the importance of considering such\u0000disparities for flood adaptation using the FEMA National Flood Insurance\u0000Program Community Rating System and its dataset of $sim$2.5 million flood\u0000insurance claims. We use ${rm C{scriptsize AUSAL}F{scriptsize LOW}}$, a\u0000causal inference method based on deep generative models, to estimate the\u0000treatment effect of flood adaptation interventions based on a community's\u0000income, diversity, population, flood risk, educational attainment, and\u0000precipitation. We find that the program saves communities $5,000--15,000 per\u0000household. However, these savings are not evenly spread across communities. For\u0000example, for low-income communities savings sharply decline as flood-risk\u0000increases in contrast to their high-income counterparts with all else equal.\u0000Even among low-income communities, there is a gap in savings between\u0000predominantly white and non-white communities: savings of predominantly white\u0000communities can be higher by more than $6000 per household. As communities\u0000worldwide ramp up efforts to reduce losses inflicted by floods, simply\u0000prescribing a series flood adaptation measures is not enough. Programs must\u0000provide communities with the necessary technical and economic support to\u0000compensate for historical patterns of disenfranchisement, racism, and\u0000inequality. Future flood adaptation efforts should go beyond reducing losses\u0000overall and aim to close existing gaps to equitably support communities in the\u0000race for climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138556901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Generating a Map of Well-being Regions using Multiscale Moving Direction Entropy on Mobile Sensors 基于移动传感器的多尺度运动方向熵生成幸福区域图

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: arxiv-2312.02516

Yukio Ohsawa, Sae Kondo, Yi Sun, Kaira Sekiguchi

引用次数: 0

Uniswap Daily Transaction Indices by Network Uniswap每日交易指数按网络

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: arxiv-2312.02660

Nir Chemaya, Lin William Cong, Emma Jorgensen, Dingyue Liu, Luyao Zhang

引用次数: 0

Golden parachutes under the threat of accidents 事故威胁下的金色降落伞

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: arxiv-2312.02101

Dylan Possamaï, Chiara Rossato

{"title":"Golden parachutes under the threat of accidents","authors":"Dylan Possamaï, Chiara Rossato","doi":"arxiv-2312.02101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.02101","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses a continuous-time contracting model that extends the\u0000problem introduced by Sannikov and later rigorously analysed by Possama\"{i}\u0000and Touzi. In our model, a principal hires a risk-averse agent to carry out a\u0000project. Specifically, the agent can perform two different tasks, namely to\u0000increase the instantaneous growth rate of the project's value, and to reduce\u0000the likelihood of accidents occurring. In order to compensate for these costly\u0000actions, the principal offers a continuous stream of payments throughout the\u0000entire duration of a contract, which concludes at a random time, potentially\u0000resulting in a lump-sum payment. We examine the consequences stemming from the\u0000introduction of accidents, modelled by a compound Poisson process that\u0000negatively impact the project's value. Furthermore, we investigate whether\u0000certain economic scenarii are still characterised by a golden parachute as in\u0000Sannikov's model. A golden parachute refers to a situation where the agent\u0000stops working and subsequently receives a compensation, which may be either a\u0000lump-sum payment leading to termination of the contract or a continuous stream\u0000of payments, thereby corresponding to a pension.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138535141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

New Facts and Data about Professors and their Research 关于教授及其研究的新事实和数据

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-03 DOI: arxiv-2312.01442

Kyle R. Myers, Wei Yang Tham, Jerry Thursby, Marie Thursby, Nina Cohodes, Karim Lakhani, Rachel Mural, Yilun Xu

{"title":"New Facts and Data about Professors and their Research","authors":"Kyle R. Myers, Wei Yang Tham, Jerry Thursby, Marie Thursby, Nina Cohodes, Karim Lakhani, Rachel Mural, Yilun Xu","doi":"arxiv-2312.01442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.01442","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a new survey of professors at roughly 150 of the most\u0000research-intensive institutions of higher education in the US. We document\u0000seven new features of how research-active professors are compensated, how they\u0000spend their time, and how they perceive their research pursuits: (1) there is\u0000more inequality in earnings within fields than there is across fields; (2)\u0000institutions, ranks, tasks, and sources of earnings can account for roughly\u0000half of the total variation in earnings; (3) there is significant variation\u0000across fields in the correlations between earnings and different kinds of\u0000research output, but these account for a small amount of earnings variation;\u0000(4) measuring professors' productivity in terms of output-per-year versus\u0000output-per-research-hour can yield substantial differences; (5) professors'\u0000beliefs about the riskiness of their research are best predicted by their\u0000fundraising intensity, their risk-aversion in their personal lives, and the\u0000degree to which their research involves generating new hypotheses; (6) older\u0000and younger professors have very different research outputs and time\u0000allocations, but their intended audiences are quite similar; (7) personal\u0000risk-taking is highly predictive of professors' orientation towards applied,\u0000commercially-relevant research.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138535095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal Consumption--Investment Problems under Time-Varying Incomplete Preferences 最优消费——时变不完全偏好下的投资问题

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: arxiv-2312.00266

Weixuan Xia

{"title":"Optimal Consumption--Investment Problems under Time-Varying Incomplete Preferences","authors":"Weixuan Xia","doi":"arxiv-2312.00266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.00266","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this paper is to develop a martingale-type solution to\u0000optimal consumption--investment choice problems ([Merton, 1969] and [Merton,\u00001971]) under time-varying incomplete preferences driven by externalities such\u0000as patience, socialization effects, and market volatility. The market is\u0000composed of multiple risky assets and multiple consumption goods, while in\u0000addition there are multiple fluctuating preference parameters with inexact\u0000values connected to imprecise tastes. Utility maximization is a multi-criteria\u0000problem with possibly function-valued criteria. To come up with a complete\u0000characterization of the solutions, first we motivate and introduce a set-valued\u0000stochastic process for the dynamics of multi-utility indices and formulate the\u0000optimization problem in a topological vector space. Then, we modify a classical\u0000scalarization method allowing for infiniteness and randomness in dimensions and\u0000prove results of equivalence to the original problem. Illustrative examples are\u0000given to demonstrate practical interests and method applicability\u0000progressively. The link between the original problem and a dual problem is also\u0000discussed, relatively briefly. Finally, using Malliavin calculus with\u0000stochastic geometry, we find optimal investment policies to be generally\u0000set-valued, each of whose selectors admits a four-way decomposition involving\u0000an additional indecisiveness risk-hedging portfolio. Our results touch on new\u0000directions for optimal consumption--investment choices in the presence of\u0000incomparability and time inconsistency, also signaling potentially testable\u0000assumptions on the variability of asset prices. Simulation techniques for\u0000set-valued processes are studied for how solved optimal policies can be\u0000computed in practice.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138535083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identifying patterns and recommendations of and for sustainable open data initiatives: a benchmarking-driven analysis of open government data initiatives among European countries 确定可持续开放数据倡议的模式和建议:欧洲国家开放政府数据倡议的基准驱动分析

arXiv - QuantFin - Economics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: arxiv-2312.00551

Martin Lnenicka, Anastasija Nikiforova, Mariusz Luterek, Petar Milic, Daniel Rudmark, Sebastian Neumaier, Caterina Santoro, Cesar Casiano Flores, Marijn Janssen, Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar

{"title":"Identifying patterns and recommendations of and for sustainable open data initiatives: a benchmarking-driven analysis of open government data initiatives among European countries","authors":"Martin Lnenicka, Anastasija Nikiforova, Mariusz Luterek, Petar Milic, Daniel Rudmark, Sebastian Neumaier, Caterina Santoro, Cesar Casiano Flores, Marijn Janssen, Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar","doi":"arxiv-2312.00551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2312.00551","url":null,"abstract":"Open government and open (government) data are seen as tools to create new\u0000opportunities, eliminate or at least reduce information inequalities and\u0000improve public services. More than a decade of these efforts has provided much\u0000experience, practices, and perspectives to learn how to better deal with them.\u0000This paper focuses on benchmarking of open data initiatives over the years and\u0000attempts to identify patterns observed among European countries that could lead\u0000to disparities in the development, growth, and sustainability of open data\u0000ecosystems. To do this, we studied benchmarks and indices published over the\u0000last years (57 editions of 8 artifacts) and conducted a comparative case study\u0000of eight European countries, identifying patterns among them considering\u0000different potentially relevant contexts such as e-government, open government\u0000data, open data indices and rankings, and others relevant for the country under\u0000consideration. Using a Delphi method, we reached a consensus within a panel of\u0000experts and validated a final list of 94 patterns, including their frequency of\u0000occurrence among studied countries and their effects on the respective\u0000countries. Finally, we took a closer look at the developments in identified\u0000contexts over the years and defined 21 recommendations for more resilient and\u0000sustainable open government data initiatives and ecosystems and future steps in\u0000this area.","PeriodicalId":501487,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138535142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0