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Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help? 科学中的说服偏见:经济学能帮上忙吗?
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12515
Alfredo Di Tillio, Marco Ottaviani, Peter Norman Sørensen
{"title":"Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help?","authors":"Alfredo Di Tillio,&nbsp;Marco Ottaviani,&nbsp;Peter Norman Sørensen","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12515","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12515","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate the impact of conflicts of interests on randomised controlled trials in a game-theoretic framework. A researcher seeks to persuade an evaluator that the causal effect of a treatment outweighs its cost, to justify acceptance. The researcher can use private information to manipulate the experiment in three alternative ways: (<i>i</i>) sampling subjects based on their treatment effect, (<i>ii</i>) assigning subjects to treatment based on their baseline outcome, or (<i>iii</i>) selectively reporting experimental outcomes. The resulting biases have different welfare implications: for sufficiently high acceptance cost, in our binary illustration the evaluator loses in cases (<i>i</i>) and (<i>iii</i>) but benefits in case (<i>ii</i>).</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F266-F304"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12515","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121375420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 29
Historic Amenities and Housing Externalities: Evidence from the Netherlands 历史设施和住房外部性:来自荷兰的证据
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12477
Hans R.A. Koster, Jan Rouwendal
{"title":"Historic Amenities and Housing Externalities: Evidence from the Netherlands","authors":"Hans R.A. Koster,&nbsp;Jan Rouwendal","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12477","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12477","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the economic effects of public investments in historic amenities by looking at their impact on house prices. We distinguish between direct and indirect effects of investments. A nationwide housing transaction is used as well as data on investments in cultural heritage. A 1 million euro per square kilometre increase in investments in cultural heritage leads to a price increase of 1.5–3.0% of non-targeted buildings. We do not find evidence that the maintenance state of non-eligible properties is improved, suggesting that any price effect due to investments in cultural heritage is a direct effect of investments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F396-F420"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12477","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114283296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 46
Auction Format and Auction Sequence in Multi-item Multi-unit Auctions: An Experimental Study 多物品多单位拍卖中的拍卖形式与拍卖顺序:实验研究
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12403
Regina Betz, Ben Greiner, Sascha Schweitzer, Stefan Seifert
{"title":"Auction Format and Auction Sequence in Multi-item Multi-unit Auctions: An Experimental Study","authors":"Regina Betz,&nbsp;Ben Greiner,&nbsp;Sascha Schweitzer,&nbsp;Stefan Seifert","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12403","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12403","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We experimentally study the effect of auction format (sealed-bid versus closed clock versus open clock) and auction sequence (simultaneous versus sequential) on bidding behaviour and auction outcomes in auctions of multiple related multi-unit items. Prominent field applications are the sale of emission permits, fishing rights, and electricity. We find that, when auctioning simultaneously, clock auctions outperform sealed-bid auctions in terms of efficiency and revenues. This advantage disappears when the items are auctioned sequentially. In addition, auctioning sequentially has positive effects on total revenues across all auction formats, resulting from fiercer competition on the item auctioned first.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F351-F371"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116253269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Determining the Optimal Length of Regulatory Guarantee: A Length-of-contract Auction 确定监管担保的最优期限:合同期限拍卖
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12405
Thomas Greve, Michael G. Pollitt
{"title":"Determining the Optimal Length of Regulatory Guarantee: A Length-of-contract Auction","authors":"Thomas Greve,&nbsp;Michael G. Pollitt","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12405","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12405","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present an auction design to be used in the area of procurement that allows the length of the regulatory funding period to be determined via an auction. It allows bidders to submit bids against a payment for periods of varying lengths, say 25 and 30 years, instead of a fixed 20-year contract. This can be desirable for securing more favourable terms in financial markets. It yields efficiency and delivers the optimal length of contract, defined as where social value is maximised. The auction is applicable to any infrastructure investment such as energy, transportation or any area that uses contracts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F325-F333"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12405","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124800655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study 复制还是不复制?通过模型和试点研究的视角探索经济学的可重复性
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12527
Zacharias Maniadis, Fabio Tufano, John A. List
{"title":"To Replicate or Not To Replicate? Exploring Reproducibility in Economics through the Lens of a Model and a Pilot Study","authors":"Zacharias Maniadis,&nbsp;Fabio Tufano,&nbsp;John A. List","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12527","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12527","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sciences are in an era of an alleged ‘credibility crisis’. In this study, we discuss the reproducibility of empirical results, focusing on economics research. By combining theory and empirical evidence, we discuss the import of replication studies and whether they improve our confidence in novel findings. The theory sheds light on the importance of replications, even when replications are subject to bias. We then present a pilot meta-study of replication in experimental economics, a subfield serving as a positive benchmark for investigating the credibility of economics. Our meta-study highlights certain difficulties when applying meta-research to systematise the economics literature.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F209-F235"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12527","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130702795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 50
The Contribution of Early-life Versus Labour Market Factors to Intergenerational Income Persistence: A Comparison of the UK and Sweden 早期生活和劳动力市场因素对代际收入持续性的贡献:英国和瑞典的比较
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12328
Anders Björklund, Markus Jäntti, Martin Nybom
{"title":"The Contribution of Early-life Versus Labour Market Factors to Intergenerational Income Persistence: A Comparison of the UK and Sweden","authors":"Anders Björklund,&nbsp;Markus Jäntti,&nbsp;Martin Nybom","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12328","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12328","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore whether differences in intergenerational income mobility between the UK and Sweden show up early in life, finding stronger associations between parental income and birthweight, height and school performance in the UK. We investigate whether these differentials can account for the country difference in income mobility. While differences in the associations in birthweight and height are too weak to matter, school performance does account for a substantial part of this difference. However, country differences in the earnings returns to these skills are at least as important as the differences in the link between parental income and skills.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F71-F94"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116437851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Dynastic Political Rents? Economic Benefits to Relatives of Top Politicians 王朝政治租金?高官亲属的经济利益
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12494
Olle Folke, Torsten Persson, Johanna Rickne
{"title":"Dynastic Political Rents? Economic Benefits to Relatives of Top Politicians","authors":"Olle Folke,&nbsp;Torsten Persson,&nbsp;Johanna Rickne","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12494","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12494","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We exploit close elections in Swedish municipalities to test whether relatives of politicians who become mayors obtain economic benefits. We find no benefits for the siblings of new mayors, but the average earnings of children of newly appointed mayors rise by about 15%. Administrative information on occupational and residence status show that the higher earnings are unlikely reflect an illegitimate allocation of jobs. But the evidence suggests that children of election-winning mayors are more likely to postpone tertiary education and remain in their parents' municipality to work.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F495-F517"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12494","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122281533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 34
Risk Attitudes Across The Life Course 生命历程中的风险态度
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12322
Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk, Bart H. H. Golsteyn, David Huffman, Uwe Sunde
{"title":"Risk Attitudes Across The Life Course","authors":"Thomas Dohmen,&nbsp;Armin Falk,&nbsp;Bart H. H. Golsteyn,&nbsp;David Huffman,&nbsp;Uwe Sunde","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12322","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12322","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article investigates how risk attitudes change over the life course. We study the age trajectory of risk attitudes all the way from early adulthood until old age, in large representative panel data sets from the Netherlands and Germany. Age patterns are generally difficult to identify separately from cohort or calendar period effects. We achieve identification by replacing calendar period indicators with controls for the specific underlying factors that may change risk attitudes across periods. The main result is that willingness to take risks decreases over the life course, linearly until approximately age 65 after which the slope becomes flatter.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F95-F116"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12322","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134205876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 156
Why are Households that Report the Lowest Incomes So Well-off? 为什么收入最低的家庭如此富裕?
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12334
Mike Brewer, Ben Etheridge, Cormac O’Dea
{"title":"Why are Households that Report the Lowest Incomes So Well-off?","authors":"Mike Brewer,&nbsp;Ben Etheridge,&nbsp;Cormac O’Dea","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12334","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12334","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We document that households in the UK with extremely low measured income tend to spend much more than those with merely moderately low income. This phenomenon is evident throughout three decades worth of microdata and across different employment states, levels of education and marital statuses. Of the likely explanations, we provide several arguments that discount over-reporting of expenditure and argue that under-reporting of income plays the major role. In particular, by using a dynamic model of consumption and saving, and paying special attention to poverty dynamics, we show that consumption smoothing cannot explain all the apparent dissaving.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F24-F49"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12334","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117003078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 71
The Power of Bias in Economics Research 经济学研究中偏见的力量
IF 3.2 2区 经济学
Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12461
John P. A. Ioannidis, T. D. Stanley, Hristos Doucouliagos
{"title":"The Power of Bias in Economics Research","authors":"John P. A. Ioannidis,&nbsp;T. D. Stanley,&nbsp;Hristos Doucouliagos","doi":"10.1111/ecoj.12461","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecoj.12461","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.</p>","PeriodicalId":48448,"journal":{"name":"Economic Journal","volume":"127 605","pages":"F236-F265"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2017-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/ecoj.12461","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123010637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 431
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