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S&P 500 volatility, volatility regimes, and economic uncertainty 标准普尔500指数的波动性、波动机制和经济不确定性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12406
Bahram Adrangi, Arjun Chatrath, Kambiz Raffiee
{"title":"S&P 500 volatility, volatility regimes, and economic uncertainty","authors":"Bahram Adrangi,&nbsp;Arjun Chatrath,&nbsp;Kambiz Raffiee","doi":"10.1111/boer.12406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12406","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess the relationship between regime-dependent volatility in S&amp;P 500, economic policy uncertainty, the S&amp;P 500 bull and bear sentiment spread (bb_sp), as well as the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX over the period 2000–2018. Our findings from two-covariate GARCH–MIDAS (GM) methodology, regime switching Markov Chain, and quantile regressions suggest that the association of realized volatility and sentiment varies across high- and low-volatility regimes and depends on investors’ sensitivity toward incidents of market uncertainties under these regimes. The findings suggest that these indicators may not be useful in volatility forecasting, especially under high-volatility regimes.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1362-1387"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50131379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
S&P 500 volatility, volatility regimes, and economic uncertainty 标准普尔500指数波动率、波动机制和经济不确定性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12406
B. Adrangi, A. Chatrath, K. Raffiee
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引用次数: 0
The effect of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on consumer bankruptcies 《平价医疗法案》扩大医疗补助对消费者破产的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12411
Maude Laberge, Kodjo-Maawuegnigan Djiffa
{"title":"The effect of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on consumer bankruptcies","authors":"Maude Laberge,&nbsp;Kodjo-Maawuegnigan Djiffa","doi":"10.1111/boer.12411","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12411","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Medical expenses have been associated with a large proportion of consumer bankruptcies in the United States. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the Medicaid expansion implemented in the context of the Affordable Care Act and consumer bankruptcy, overall and by chapter filing. We used a longitudinal study design with a study period of 2008–2017. We tested three approaches: difference-in-differences, fixed effect panel linear regression, and triple difference. We constructed a panel dataset from 2008 to 2017 with states’ data using data from various sources on insurance, bankruptcy filings, and characteristics that may affect bankruptcy, such as income and ethnicity. The outcomes were the annual rates of consumer bankruptcies overall and by chapter at the state level. Between 2008 and 2017, the overall unadjusted bankruptcy filing rate fell from 0.36% to 0.24%. We found that the expansion was associated with a decrease in overall consumer bankruptcy varying between 0.035 and 0.039 percentage points and that the intensity of the effect was modulated by the intensity of the treatment. Results were consistent across models and suggest that the Medicaid expansion had a significant negative effect on overall bankruptcy filings and specifically on Chapter 7 filings.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1344-1361"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12411","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43037825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beneficial impact of tax reforms on tax revenue performances in Togo: Myth or reality? 税制改革对多哥税收绩效的有利影响:神话还是现实?
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12410
Nimonka Bayale, Abdou-Fataou Tchagnao, Madow Nagou, Pouwemdéou Tchila
{"title":"Beneficial impact of tax reforms on tax revenue performances in Togo: Myth or reality?","authors":"Nimonka Bayale,&nbsp;Abdou-Fataou Tchagnao,&nbsp;Madow Nagou,&nbsp;Pouwemdéou Tchila","doi":"10.1111/boer.12410","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12410","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve tax revenue mobilization. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. Using cross-country panel data over the period 2000–2021, this article evaluates the impact of the 2012 tax reforms on tax revenue performance in Togo. We follow the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) estimation procedures. After comparing the observed evolution of Togo's tax revenue output in the period 2013–2021 with that of synthetic Togo, our estimates show that an accumulated yearly average gain is about 3.09% of GDP. Hence, the article concludes that after 9 years of reform, the improvement in Togo's tax performance is remarkable. However, more tax-related and institutions-related reforms are crucial to make Togo's tax system more buoyant and sustainably improve tax revenue mobilization.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1323-1343"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43809185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Inter- and intracountry effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wages and economic growth 新冠肺炎-19大流行对工资和经济增长的国家间和国内影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12412
Óscar Afonso
{"title":"Inter- and intracountry effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on wages and economic growth","authors":"Óscar Afonso","doi":"10.1111/boer.12412","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12412","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on technological knowledge, wage inequality, and economic growth, by proposing a Direct-Technical-Change model with two economies, an Innovative and other Follower. Six hypotheses are considered: (i) decrease in the unskilled-labor supply, (ii) decrease in the absolute advantage of unskilled labor, (iii) decrease in the intensity of the unskilled sector, (iv) hypothesis (i) combined with a lower decrease in the skilled-labor supply, (v) hypothesis (ii) combined with a lower decrease in the absolute advantage of skilled labor, (vi) all the variations previously considered. By comparing the steady states before and after the shock, we find an increase in the technological-knowledge bias that favors the skill-intensive sector, which positively affects the skill premium. However, in hypotheses (i) and (iv), the decrease in the relative supply of unskilled labor dominates the effect on the skill premium, which thus decreases. The economic growth rate is always penalized except for hypothesis (iii). Hypotheses (ii) and (iv) are undesirable because they increase wage inequality and penalize economic growth. Governments should support innovative activity, the engine of technological-knowledge progress, and thus economic growth, but with caution not to exacerbate the skill premium.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1291-1322"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44491460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam 教育回报和过度教育带来的工资惩罚:来自越南的新证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12409
Dai Binh Tran, Sasiwimon Warunsiri Paweenawat
{"title":"The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam","authors":"Dai Binh Tran,&nbsp;Sasiwimon Warunsiri Paweenawat","doi":"10.1111/boer.12409","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12409","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1267-1290"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42643078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectations and the housing market: A model of house price dynamics 预期与住房市场：房价动态模型
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12408
Jengei Hong, Doojin Ryu
{"title":"Expectations and the housing market: A model of house price dynamics","authors":"Jengei Hong,&nbsp;Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1111/boer.12408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12408","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the characteristics of housing markets under adaptive and heterogeneous expectations. Model agents have finite horizons, and their borrowings are constrained by the collateral value of housing stock. Our model shows that expectation-driven housing price dynamics constantly change the direction of movement. The steady-state process of housing prices follows an endogenous oscillation process, and the magnitude of the cycles can be amplified by external shocks. Our quantitative results imply that (i) short-term positive and long-term negative serial correlations in housing price changes are inherent, (ii) house prices and expected house price movements are positively correlated, and (iii) fluctuations in housing prices are not fully explained by fundamentals.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1242-1266"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50144919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign players, team production, and technical efficiency: Evidence from European soccer 外国球员、球队产出和技术效率:来自欧洲足球的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12407
David Boto-García, Carlos Varela-Quintana, Alvaro Muñiz
{"title":"Foreign players, team production, and technical efficiency: Evidence from European soccer","authors":"David Boto-García,&nbsp;Carlos Varela-Quintana,&nbsp;Alvaro Muñiz","doi":"10.1111/boer.12407","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12407","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As on-field success is nowadays the main objective of European soccer clubs, good management needs to extract the highest sport success from the squad talent at hand. Because teams differ in their quality, performance needs to be compared with the best practice of comparable units. One remarkable source of heterogeneity across teams is the squad composition, which can produce gains from diversity together with communication costs. The paper studies the efficiency in sporting performance of soccer teams, paying attention to how the number of foreign players relates to productive inefficiency. Using data for 146 teams in the top 5 European leagues during 10 seasons, we estimate a double heteroskedastic True Random Effects Stochastic Frontier team production function. We find that (i) the number of passes, ball recoveries, and shots from the penalty area improve team efficiency, and (ii) a higher number of foreign players increase inefficiency. Our findings suggest that gains from squad diversity might be offset by communication costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1209-1241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/boer.12407","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44323299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The effects of broadcast on a team's market and on competitive balance from the perspective of fans maximizing utility 从球迷效用最大化的角度看转播对球队市场和竞争平衡的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12405
Hon Foong Cheah
{"title":"The effects of broadcast on a team's market and on competitive balance from the perspective of fans maximizing utility","authors":"Hon Foong Cheah","doi":"10.1111/boer.12405","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12405","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the decision of fans to attend the game or watch the exact televised match to address whether broadcast lowers revenue collected at the gate and worsens competitive balance. In most cases, broadcasts lower attendance and collection at the gate but do not necessarily worsen competitive balance. Weaker teams can benefit from broadcast revenue and catch up with their stronger counterpart. However, teams that make more money from broadcasts and a broad fan base can gain more advantages from broadcasts and worsen competitive balance.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1191-1208"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44780749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disclosure policies in all-pay auctions with bid caps and stochastic entry: The impact of risk aversion 有出价上限和随机进入的全包拍卖中的披露政策：风险规避的影响
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Bulletin of Economic Research Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1111/boer.12398
Xiangyu Wang, Shulin Liu
{"title":"Disclosure policies in all-pay auctions with bid caps and stochastic entry: The impact of risk aversion","authors":"Xiangyu Wang,&nbsp;Shulin Liu","doi":"10.1111/boer.12398","DOIUrl":"10.1111/boer.12398","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate how risk aversion affects the organizer's disclosing the actual number of bidders in an all-pay auction with an exogenous bid cap and stochastic entry. With an exogenous probability of participation, the organizer prefers fully concealing the number of participating bidders when bidders are risk neutral. However, this result does not hold with risk aversion. Specifically, whether the organizer prefers fully concealing or fully revealing information depends on the number of potential bidders, the probability of participation, and the size of bid caps. A special case of endogenous entry shows that the organizer's preference is similar to the risk-neutral case.</p>","PeriodicalId":46233,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Economic Research","volume":"75 4","pages":"1181-1190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42009750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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