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The Factors that Influence Postpaid Subscribers to Make Churn in a Romanian Telecommunication Company 影响罗马尼亚某电信公司后付费用户流失的因素

Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.2478/icas-2019-0021

Andreea Dumitrache, Monica Mihaela Matei Maer, Stelian Stancu, O. Popescu

{"title":"The Factors that Influence Postpaid Subscribers to Make Churn in a Romanian Telecommunication Company","authors":"Andreea Dumitrache, Monica Mihaela Matei Maer, Stelian Stancu, O. Popescu","doi":"10.2478/icas-2019-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/icas-2019-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The telecommunication industry is growing every day, increasing its competitiveness. In almost all European countries, the market penetration of mobile network users exceeded 100% (for example in Croatia it is over 130%). Acquiring new users is virtually impossible because there are no new users. There are only users of rival companies who are exposed to numerous marketing campaigns carefully designed to try to win them. That’s why customer retention activity and churn prevention is a necessity. The purpose of this paper is to predict customers who are willing to migrate to another Romanian mobile telecommunications company and to determine the strongest factors of influence in the consumer’s decision to leave their current service provider for another provider. Migration behavior analysis is developed for customers with postpaid subscriptions. We applied the ROSE package for re-sampling and decision trees on the dataset to identify decision makers in the migration process. The combination of the two techniques in our study did not significantly improve the performance of the classifier measured by the AUC (Area Under the Curve). After balancing the sample, however, we obtain the optimal value of the AUC coefficient (0.724) for the second cluster, making the correct prediction of the churn phenomenon on the analyzed data set. The study is an addition of Churn Analysis in Romanian Telecommunications Company, M. M. Matei Maer and A. Dumitrache (2018), where ROSE and logistic regression was applied to the same dataset for the same purpose: balancing the sample and churn prediction, but the value of the AUC coefficient was really low, making it difficult to accurately predict the churn phenomenon. Therefore, another purpose of the current paper is to compare the performance of the two techniques used in combination with ROSE on the same set of data.","PeriodicalId":393626,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics","volume":"2020 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132575755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Smoking as a bad habit: a behavioral economics perspective 吸烟是一种坏习惯:行为经济学视角

Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.2478/icas-2019-0038

Mădălina-Elena Ștefăneţ, Simona R. Grădinaru, A. Coşer, Stelian Stancu

{"title":"Smoking as a bad habit: a behavioral economics perspective","authors":"Mădălina-Elena Ștefăneţ, Simona R. Grădinaru, A. Coşer, Stelian Stancu","doi":"10.2478/icas-2019-0038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/icas-2019-0038","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Tobacco consumption is a problem of both health and economic interest nowadays. According to recent studies conducted by the European Commission approximate 700,000 deaths per year are caused by smoking. For this reason, the European Commission frequently conducts a survey in order to monitor the attitude towards tobacco addiction. Smoking addiction changes due to different factors such as budget, time or entourage. The evolution in time of these factors and the consumers’ preferences is studied using behavioral economics based on a small group of respondents. Through a survey, over 500 persons were asked to choose their preference for cigarettes characteristics. We employ correspondence analysis using combinations of age, type of cigarette, number of cigarettes smoked per day and nicotine concertation to see the type of responses the consumers’ have according to their habit. Moreover, we made a 5 persons selection from the initial group and we observed their behavior for 9 months period of time. The consumers were asked to classify a set of packages according to their preferences and we applied conjoint analysis in order to determine how or if the initial preferences change. Furthermore, we explain the changes in behavior by taking into account the nowadays global impetus towards a healthier lifestyle. The results provided allow to emphasize the role of a strong analysis for each single target consumer’s behavior as this is one of the main roles of Behavioral Economics.","PeriodicalId":393626,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114061313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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