Cognitive Science Negative Results eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Costs of Fallacy Mind to the Global Economics","authors":"M. Bayraktar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3290774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3290774","url":null,"abstract":"Every day we make decisions that some are small, some are more important thus affect people’s lives. The average adult human brain weighs around 3 lbs. and every day the average person has around 50,000-70,000 thoughts that between 70% to 80% of those are negative so around 40,000 to 50,000. Negative thoughts in a day that need to be managing and filtering not a small task for any person. We should doubt our thoughts all the time. Our mind (thoughts) tricks us into that called fallacies (around 200 different fallacies listed). A fallacy can be defined as an incorrect argument in logic and rhetoric that undermines an argument’s logical validity. Biases are defined as the tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality. Global economy losses trillions of dollars every year because of human-related (DUI) traffic accidents, obesity, crime, alcohol, drug addiction, and many forms of bad decisions by irrational individuals. Millions of people get themselves killed because they are not taken care of their lives properly. Hundred billions of dollars are consuming by the health sector also huge amounts go to prevent crimes by justice departments and military spendings but these scarce funds could be used to end poverty, increase GDP and well-being of billions of people all around the world. J. M. Keynes argued about “animal spirits” to describe the instincts and emotions that influence and guide human behavior. Keynes understood “in such an uncertain world, many decisions can only be taken as a result of animal spirits”. Conventional economic analysis encircles itself to rational, quantifiable facts. But in reality, economic decision-makers are frequently intuitive, emotional, and irrational. Bounded rationality is a concept proposed by H. Simon challenges the notion of human rationality. D. Kahneman & A. Tversky argued about how our minds play tricks on us. J. R. Shiller and G. Akerlof wrote the role played in our economy by animal spirits such as speculative fluctuations in asset prices, changes in investment levels reflect beliefs about changing prices and they believe people live by stories. R. H. Thaler and C. R. Sunstein show that we are all open to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions. The war in Vietnam cost the United States $843.63 billion (2019 dollars) in 1968 and 58,000 dead soldiers. Now, U.S. goods and services trade with Vietnam totaled an estimated $81.3 billion in 2019. U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam was $2.6 billion in 2019. Iraq War spending (2019 dollars): $1.01 trillion, and U.S. military deaths: 4,410. US taxpayers have paid an average of $8,000 each. In Afghanistan, U.S. war spending (2019 dollars): $910.47 billion and 2,285 U.S. deaths. Around 100,000 Afghan civilians have been injured or killed. President Biden will withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan over the coming month of September 2021. The Stockholm International Peace Research Ins","PeriodicalId":369242,"journal":{"name":"Cognitive Science Negative Results eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115425800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}