ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)最新文献_第3页

Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach 预测消费者违约:一种深度学习方法

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3445152

S. Albanesi, Domonkos F. Vamossy

引用次数: 49

The Information View of Financial Crises 金融危机的信息观

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3416824

Tri Vi Dang, Gary B. Gorton, Bengt Holmström

引用次数: 46

Higher Capital and Liquidity Regulations of Basel Standards Have Made Banks and Banking Systems Become More Prone to Financial and Economic Crises 巴塞尔标准中更高的资本和流动性规定使银行和银行系统更容易发生金融和经济危机

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3401378

John Taskinsoy

{"title":"Higher Capital and Liquidity Regulations of Basel Standards Have Made Banks and Banking Systems Become More Prone to Financial and Economic Crises","authors":"John Taskinsoy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3401378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3401378","url":null,"abstract":"Basel II and III standards are a regulatory consequence following two major crises in systemic nature, the homegrown Asian crisis of 1997-98 and the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Basel I, despite high expectations and claims by the Basel Committee, failed to prevent the following financial crises from occurring in the 1990s; Finnish and Swedish banking crises (early 1990s), Indian economic crisis (1991), Mexican peso crisis (1994), Turkish economic crisis (1994), Asian crisis (1997-98), Russian financial crisis (1998), Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002), and Brazil crisis (1999). The Asian financial crisis in systemic nature cost global investors a jaw dropping close to one trillion dollars. Replacing Basel I with a Revised Framework did not stop the recurrence of financial crises in the new millennium which have been ever more costly, longer-lasting, and unbearably damaging. Basel II, just like Basel I, failed to avoid the following crises either originated in the U.S. or caused by contagion; the bust of the dot.com bubble (2001-02), mortgage debacle (2006), global financial crisis (2008), and sovereign debt crisis in eurozone (2010-12). Just these four crises cost the world’s economies as much as thirty trillion dollars. The probability of a high-magnitude financial crisis to occur is between 4% and 5%, which means that by 2030 Basel III may have a chance to prove its ability to withstand shocks; in the event of a failure, the extent of financial loses may be the largest ever ($50 trillion?).","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116739330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 34

Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis 黑暗中总有一线光明:葡萄牙金融危机的净化效应

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-06-05 DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1250

Daniel A. Dias, Carlos Robalo Marques, C. Marques

引用次数: 2

Does Getting a Mortgage Affect Credit Card Use? 抵押贷款会影响信用卡的使用吗?

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-05-01 DOI: 10.29412/RES.WP.2019.08

S. Fulford, J. Stavins

引用次数: 1

Measuring the Capital Shortfall of Large U.S. Banks 衡量美国大型银行的资本缺口

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-04-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3126896

E. Jondeau, Amir Khalilzadeh

引用次数: 0

Global Growth on Life Support? The Contributions of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Since the Global Financial Crisis 生命支持的全球增长?全球金融危机以来财政和货币政策的贡献

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3351787

Ursel Baumann, D. Lodge, M. Miescu

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引用次数: 2

On the Global Impact of Risk-Off Shocks and Policy-Put Frameworks 规避风险冲击和政策看跌框架的全球影响

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-03-08 DOI: 10.3386/W26031

Ricardo J. Caballero, Güneş Kamber

{"title":"On the Global Impact of Risk-Off Shocks and Policy-Put Frameworks","authors":"Ricardo J. Caballero, Güneş Kamber","doi":"10.3386/W26031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26031","url":null,"abstract":"Global risk-off shocks can be highly destabilizing for financial markets and, absent an adequate policy response, may trigger severe recessions. Policy responses were more complex for developed economies with very low interest rates after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We document, however, that the unconventional policies adopted by the main central banks were effective in containing asset price declines. These policies impacted long rates and inspired confidence in a policy-put framework that reduced the persistence of risk-off shocks. We also show that domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions play a key role in benefiting from the spillovers of these policies during risk-off episodes. Countries like Japan, which already had very low long rates, benefited less. However, Japan still benefitted from the reduced persistence of risk-off shocks. In contrast, since one of the main channels through which emerging markets are historically affected by global risk-off shocks is through a sharp rise in long rates, the unconventional monetary policy phase has been relatively benign to emerging markets during these episodes, especially for those economies with solid macroeconomic fundamentals and deep domestic financial markets. We also show that unconventional monetary policy in the US had strong effects on long interest rates in most economies in the Asia-Pacific region (which helps during risk-off events but may be destabilizing otherwise—we do not take a stand on this tradeoff).","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128960313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

Credit, Financial Conditions and the Business Cycle in China 中国的信贷、金融状况和商业周期

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2019-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3337423

D. Lodge, Michael Soudan

引用次数: 3

Getting the Measure of Money: A Critical Assessment of UK Monetary Indicators 衡量货币:对英国货币指标的关键评估

ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic) Pub Date : 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3853126

A. Evans

{"title":"Getting the Measure of Money: A Critical Assessment of UK Monetary Indicators","authors":"A. Evans","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3853126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3853126","url":null,"abstract":"The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England’s reliance on faulty indicators has led to suboptimal policy decisions and masked what is actually happening in the economy. The introduction of quantitative easing (QE) in 2009 has made the money supply relevant again and made a discussion about alternative money supply measures of direct policy significance. Unfortunately, Bank of England figures have proved misleading and subject to major alterations. This book argues in favour of measures such as MZM and Divisia money, which attempt to find a middle ground between narrow and broad measures. It introduces a new and publicly available measure, MA, based on an a priori approach to defining money as the generally accepted medium of exchange. Central bankers are right to alter monetary policy in light of changes in the demand for money (i.e. velocity shocks), but they also need to recognise the potential for their own actions to be the cause of such shocks. In particular, central banks are ‘big players’ who can weaken confidence by generating regime uncertainty, and this played a major role in the 2008 financial crisis. While increased attention to uncertainty by economists should be welcomed, we should also be wary of attempts to measure it. From 1999 to 2006 the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) systematically underreported the inflationary pressure in the UK. More attention should be given to indices that include asset prices. GDP figures available at the time understated the severity of the 2008 recession, but also understated the strength of the recovery. GDP is flawed as a measure of well-being, of economic growth and even of economic activity. We get a fuller picture if we include intermediate consumption (or business-to-business spending), which is known as ‘Gross Output’ (GO). GO for the UK is typically two times bigger than GDP and more volatile. Unfortunately, official figures are only published on an annual basis and with a significant lag.","PeriodicalId":283702,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Financial Crises (Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125351027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0