The FinancePub Date : 2018-03-30DOI: 10.12677/fin.2018.83009
李珂珂, 李瑞瑞, 储佩玲
{"title":"浅谈我国绿色信贷的发展与创新The Development and Innovation of China’s Green Credit","authors":"李珂珂, 李瑞瑞, 储佩玲","doi":"10.12677/fin.2018.83009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/fin.2018.83009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"B2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126839029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-03-30DOI: 10.12677/fin.2018.83012
吴政仲, 蔡雅茹, 阳梦麟
{"title":"基于国外经验评价住房反向抵押贷款风险因素分析A Study on Risk Factors of Housing Reverse Mortgage Based on Foreign Experience","authors":"吴政仲, 蔡雅茹, 阳梦麟","doi":"10.12677/fin.2018.83012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/fin.2018.83012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130038390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-01-04DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2018.81003
吉余峰, 卢洪莉
{"title":"Research on the Influencing Factors of AH Share Premium Rate under the Background of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect","authors":"吉余峰, 卢洪莉","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2018.81003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2018.81003","url":null,"abstract":"本文以2012~2016年为研究期间,选择A + H交叉上市公司为研究样本,分别对沪港通开通前后样本公司A + H股价差进行研究。主要从流动性差异、需求差异、投资者结构差异、融资成本差异,汇率、市场行情、行业因素等方面对A股H股溢价率进行分析,研究结果表明,沪港通的开通并没有降低A股H股溢价率,反而拉大了A股H股价差。在溢价率的影响因素中,市场流动性的影响显著为正;需求弹性、融资成本、汇率的影响显著为负;股市行情越好,股价越高,金融行业的溢价率明显低于非金融行业;最后,针对缩小A股H股价格差异和加速市场融合,提出了若干政策性建议。 This paper takes A + H cross-listed companies as research samples during the period from 2012 to 2016, and studies the spread of A + H shares of sample companies before and after the establishment of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The analysis of the premium rate of H shares of A shares based on liquidity differences, demand differences, investor structure differences, financing cost differences, exchange rates, market conditions and industry factors. The results show that the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has not reduced the premium of H shares of A shares but instead widened the spread of H shares of A shares. Among the factors affecting the premium rate, the effect of market liquidity is significantly positive, the impact of the demand elasticity, financing cost and exchange rate is significantly negative. And the research shows that the premium rate of the financial industry is significantly lower than the non-financial industry. Finally, in view of narrowing the price difference of A shares and accelerating the market integration, this article put forward a number of policy recommendations.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131459639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-01-04DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2018.81001
阎可佳
{"title":"使用差分方法提高预测精度——基于中国沪深300股票指数的实证分析 Using Difference Method to Improve the Prediction Accuracy—An Empirical Study Based on China Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index","authors":"阎可佳","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2018.81001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2018.81001","url":null,"abstract":"当AR、ARIMA、ARMA、MA模型被用来进行时间序列未来值的预测时,由于误差项很容易被忽略掉,所以预测精度受到很大的影响。为了提高预测的精度,本文提出使用差分方法(DF)来处理自相关模型(AR)的误差项。通过对中国沪深300指数(Hushen300)进行实证研究发现:第一,AR-DF模型比单纯AR模型大大提高了HUSHEN收益指数实际值与预测值之间的相关系数;第二,AR-DF模型所得到的误差值比单纯AR模型要小很多;第三,在滞后阶数达到700时,AR-DF模型对于股票收益指数涨跌趋势的命中率比单纯AR模型提高了25.30个百分点,从50.99%提高到了62.65%。 When prediction models such as AR, ARIMA, ARMA, and MA are usually used to forecast the future values of a time series, because the residual values are easily ignored, the prediction accuracy has been influenced a lot. For improving the prediction accuracy, this paper suggests use difference method (DF) to deal with the residual item of autoregressive model (AR). Based on the China Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index (Hushen300), the empirical study has found: First, the AR-DF model can result in higher correlation between the real value of HUSHEN return index and its prediction value than pure AR model; second, the average residual value of AR-DF model is quite smaller than the pure AR model; Third, the hit ratio of AR-DF model has increased more than 25.30 percent points than pure AR model, which can increase from 50.99% to 62.65% when the lag order is up to 700.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134243346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-01-04DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2018.81005
张涛, 邓晓卫, 李凡一, 张苏靖
{"title":"基于GARCH模型的融资融券对我国股市的影响研究 A Research about Effects Margin Transaction Has on the Stock Market in China Based on GARCH Model","authors":"张涛, 邓晓卫, 李凡一, 张苏靖","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2018.81005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2018.81005","url":null,"abstract":"选取2014年3月12日至2016年9月14日之间的619个上证综指的对数收益率以及上交所的融资、融券余额作为样本数据。首先,利用AIC和SC准则确定了GARCH模型的滞后项数;然后,引入虚拟变量作为牛、熊市的划分,建立含虚拟变量的GARCH(1,1)模型,分析融资融券制度对股市波动性的影响。结果显示:1) 融资交易在熊市和牛市均增加了股市的波动性,并且融资交易在熊市时对股市波动性的放大作用比在牛市时更大;2) 融券交易在牛市时,增加了股市的波动性,而在熊市时,对股市的波动性有抑制作用。最后,结合当时的制度、政策及投资者心理,从统计上分析得到:在我国融资融券业务发展不均衡,融资业务规模远远大于融券业务的规模,因此,我国两融业务对股市波动性最重要的影响是融资业务。 Select 619 logarithmic ratio of Shanghai Composite Index and balances of financing and securities loan during the period between 12th March, 2014 and 14th September, 2016 as sample data. Firstly, AIC and SC criteria are used to confirm the lag item numbers of GARCH model. Then, we introduce dummy variables as the partition of bull market and bear market, establish GARCH (1,1) model including dummy variables and analyze the effects that the system of margin transaction has on stock market volatility. The results indicate that: 1) Financing transaction in both bull market and bear market increases stock market volatility and the amplified influence that financing transaction has on the volatility in the bear market is more significant than that in the bull market. 2) Securities trading increases the volatility in the bull market while restrains that in the bear market. Finally, we combine the temporal systems, policies and investors’ mentality and from statistical analysis, we draw a conclusion: In China, financing business and securities business develop unevenly and the scale of financing business is far larger than that of securities business. Thus, in China, financing business exerts more important effects on the fluctuation of the stock market than securities business.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114743187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-01-04DOI: 10.12677/fin.2018.81004
丁文丽, 刘丰睿, 李富昌
{"title":"异质性多主体视角下的中国与东南亚周边国家金融合作研究 Research on the Financial Cooperation between China and the Neighboring Countries of Southeast Asia from the Heterogeneous Multiple Subject Perspective","authors":"丁文丽, 刘丰睿, 李富昌","doi":"10.12677/fin.2018.81004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/fin.2018.81004","url":null,"abstract":"中国与东南亚周边各国是异质性的多个主体,金融发展水平各异。本文分析了中国与东南亚国家之间经济体量、金融发展水平、金融管理能力和金融风险控制能力的异质性。又从异质性多主体在区域金融合作中的有利影响和不利影响方面分析中国和缅甸、越南、老挝的金融合作,其中有利影响包括区域金融发展之中不存在金融合作主导权的争夺、合作的潜力更大、合作成本小和有利于人民币区域化的推进;不利因素包括金融基础设置的不平衡性对区域金融连通不利、东南亚周边国家金融组织体系不健全、金融市场发展差异较大、风险防控差异较大和区域金融合作的跟随着担忧主导方金融权益侵占本国利益,最后提出区域金融合作的建议和对策。 The People’s Republic of China and the Southeast Asia country bordered on China are heteroge-neous. Their level of financial development is different. This paper analyzes the heterogeneity of economic volume, financial development level, financial management ability and financial risk control ability between China and Southeast Asian countries. And it also analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the financial cooperation between China and Burma, Vietnam and Laos. Among them, the advantages are as follows: No competition for the dominance of financial coop-eration in the development of regional finance, more potential cooperation, lower cooperating costs and promoting the regionalization of RMB. In contrast, disadvantages are as follows: The imbalance of financial infrastructure is disadvantageous to regional financial connectivity, the fi-nancial organization system of Southeast Asian countries is not well organized, the development of financial market is different, risk prevention and control is different and the follower is afraid that the leader seizes it’s revenue. Finally, the suggestions and countermeasures of regional financial cooperation are put forward.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123380447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2018-01-04DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2018.81002
李勇, 马情情
{"title":"我国上市公司定向增发折价率影响因素的研究 Research on Influential Factors of Private Placement Discount Rate in China’s Listed Companies","authors":"李勇, 马情情","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2018.81002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2018.81002","url":null,"abstract":"本文采用主成分分析法,对选取的众多影响定向增发折价率的变量进行提取分类,以期确定这些主成分对定向增发折价率的影响程度,本文的主要研究结论如下:1) 在影响定向增发折价率的诸多因素中,信息不对称因素对其影响最大,且与其呈正相关关系;2) 市场行情影响程度次之,且与其呈正相关关系;3) 发行对象、大股东认购比例以及大股东认购比例与原持股比例的差额这三个代表利益输送因素的指标均与折价率存在正相关关系,从而佐证了利益输送假说。4) 代表流动性约束成本因素的两个指标,个股波动率和个股系统性风险均与折价率呈正相关关系,即个股波动率越大,个股系统性风险越高,从而流动性约束成本越高,折价率越高。这在一定程度上验证了流动性成本假说。5) 公司内在价值因素与定向增发折价率并不存在显著的相关关系,这一结论与理论分析及前人研究结果存在出入。 In this paper, we use principal component analysis to extract and classify many variables that af-fect the discount rate of private placement, in order to determine the extent to which these prin-cipal components affect the discount rate of private placement. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) Among the many factors affecting the rate of private placement discount, information asymmetry factors have the greatest impact on it and have a positive correlation with it. 2) Market conditions are the second largest factor and have a positive correlation with it. 3) The object of distribution, the subscription ratio of major shareholder and the difference between the subscription ratio of the major shareholder and the original shareholding ratio, all of these have positive correlations with the discount rate, and then verify the hypothesis of benefit transfer. 4) The volatility of individual stocks and the systematic risk of individual stocks which represent the cost constraint of liquidity constraints, are all positively correlated with the discount rate. In other words the larger the volatility of individual stocks, the higher the systemic risk of individual stocks, and the more liquidity constraint costs high, the higher the discount rate, and then verifies the liquidity cost hypothesis to a certain extent. 5) There is no significant correlation between the company intrinsic value and the private placement discount rate. This conclusion is different from the theoretical analysis and the predecessor research results.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114956104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2017-11-09DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2017.75030
周 先平
{"title":"Does the Extra 30-Minutes Trading Time of Stock Futures Destabilize the Stock Market: A Quasi Natural Experimental Evidence from China","authors":"周 先平","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2017.75030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2017.75030","url":null,"abstract":"2016年1月,股指期货交易规则进行了大幅度调整,相对于股票现货额外的30分钟连续竞价交易时间被取消,股票指数期货和现货交易时间同步。交易时间的调整为我们研究股指期货额外30分钟交易时间是否加剧了现货市场的波动提供了一个准自然实验样本。本文借助EGARCH-X模型研究发现,在IF股指期货交易时间缩短前,额外30分钟的期货交易能够对冲昨日现货市场的上涨或下跌,吸收现货收盘阶段的各种消息和冲击,进而降低接下来的现货交易的波动率。借助VECM-GJR-BEKK模型,我们发现在2016年1月之前的9:30~15:00同步交易时间段,两个市场存在着双向波动溢出,9:15~15:15的期货与9:30~15:00的现货不存在双向波动溢出。在2016年1月之后,仅期货市场对现货市场存在单向波动传导,而现货市场无法对期货市场输出波动。因此,期货额外30分钟的交易时间是有价值的,本文建议尽快恢复股指期货盘后和盘前额外的30分钟交易时间,让市场有更多的时间来吸收冲击,平滑波动。 During the stock market crash in 2015, stock futures have been widely criticized, which accuse the extra 30 minutes trading time of stock futures misleading stock spots. The cancellation of the extra 30 minutes trading time which means the spots trade synchronously with the futures provides a quasi natural experiment to examine the criticisms. A VECM-GJR-BEKK model is employed to investigate the varying spillover effects between the futures and spots due to the cancellation of the extra trading time. Before the cancellation, the spots have spillover effects on the futures with extra 30 minutes trading time, while the futures with extra trading time have no significant spillover effects on the next day’s spots. The futures have spillover effects on the spots, but the opposite spillover effects don’t hold after the cancellation. The conclusion is that the futures shouldn’t be responsible for the 2015 stock markets crash. The policy implication is to restore the extra 30 minutes trading time of stock futures which could absorb the shocks during the inactive time of the spots, thus smooth the volatility of the spots.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114461468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2017-11-09DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2017.75032
陈 飞跃
{"title":"The Empirical Study on Factors Influencing Investment Efficiency of Insurance Funds Based on the Panel Data Model","authors":"陈 飞跃","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2017.75032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2017.75032","url":null,"abstract":"投资收益是保险公司的主要利润来源,保险资金投资效率体现了保险公司资金运用能力,对保险公司的持续稳健经营和长远发展至关重要。本文利用2007~2014年中国23个保险公司的面板数据对险资投资效率与其影响因素之间关系进行实证研究,结果表明:资产规模与保险资金运用效率呈现负相关;定期存款投资比例对保险资金投资效率的影响显著负相关,而长期类证券投资比例对保险资金投资效率的影响显著正相关;市场份额扩大显著提高了保险资金的投资效率;综合营业费用率对保险资金投资效率起消极作用,投资部门劳动者素质对投资效率有正向影响,但影响结果都不显著。 Return on investment is the major source of profits of insurance companies. Investment efficiency of insurance funds reflects ability of capital operation of insurance companies, which is crucial of great importance to the continuous stable operation and long-term development of insurance companies. By using panel data of 23 insurance companies of China in 2007-2014 on an empirical study on relationship between investment efficiency of insurance funds and factors influencing investment efficiency, result shows that asset size is negatively correlated with using efficiency of insurance funds; fixed term deposit-rate has significantly negative effects on investment efficiency of insurance funds, long-term securities investment-rate does prominently positively; Market share significantly improves investment efficiency; Comprehensive operating fee-rate has a negative effect on investment efficiency. The quality of investment department staffs plays a positive role on investment efficiency, but results are not significant.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129031625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The FinancePub Date : 2017-11-09DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2017.75028
顾文文, 王晓煜, 盛怡菲
{"title":"辽宁省金融生态环境评价及优化研究—基于2008~2014年因子分析和门限模型的实证研究","authors":"顾文文, 王晓煜, 盛怡菲","doi":"10.12677/FIN.2017.75028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2017.75028","url":null,"abstract":"基于2008~2014年辽宁省14个城市经济基础、金融发展及制度环境子指标构建的金融生态环境指标体系,补充考虑金融质量层面的测度并运用因子分析法与门限模型对辽宁省金融生态环境动态演化特征及优化路径的实证进行研究发现:1) 辽宁省金融生态环境总体呈现先上升后下降的倒U特征且不同时期影响机理存在差异;2) 沿海城市金融生态环境质量总体排名中上游,内陆城市金融生态环境质量相对较差;3) 辽宁省城市金融生态环境对经济增长影响呈现非线性的单门槛特征,金融生态环境及其子指标的门限值分别为0.48、0.52、0.46、0.41,并据此实证找出辽宁省金融生态环境的优化区间。 Based on the sub-indicators of economic foundation, financial development and institutional en-vironment in 14 cities of Liaoning Province, we construct the financial ecological environment system, and also we complementally measure the influence of financial efficiency, and use factor analysis and panel threshold together to explore the dynamic evolutionary character and optimization route: 1) the whole trend performs an inversed U character with different influential mechanisms in different periods; 2) the ranking of financial ecological environment in coastal cities is at the level upper reaches, while the inland cities comparatively fall behind; 3) single threshold exists in the nonlinear effect of financial ecological environment to economic growth, and the value is 0.48, 0.52, 0.46, 0.41 respectively, then finding the optimization interval of financial ecological environment accordingly in Liaoning Province.","PeriodicalId":251115,"journal":{"name":"The Finance","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122643706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}