{"title":"Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union Under Asymmetric Information","authors":"Luigi Marattin, Simone Meraglia","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2632004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2632004","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze fiscal rules within a Monetary Union in the presence of (i) asymmetric information on member states’ potential output and (ii) bail-out among member states. The first-best deficit is contingent on the cycle, that is, on member states’ output gap. In the presence of asymmetric information and bailout, the first-best deficit is not implementable. Bail-out lowers the scope for signalling (discrimination) by member states (lenders) and induces overborrowing by member states characterized by a low output gap. The Monetary Union can design a mechanism such that a member state with a smaller negative output gap runs an optimal budget deficit upon receiving a transfer form the Union. We show that, this ‘cyclically-contingent’ fiscal framework Pareto dominates the ‘cyclically-adjusted’ fiscal rule currently enforced by the European Monetary Union. Our model can then account for a situation where both asymmetric information over cyclical positions and the presence of bail-out among member states does not induce borrowing distortions.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122983993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effects of Government Spending in a Small Open Economy within a Monetary Union","authors":"Daragh Clancy, P. Jacquinot, Matija Lozej","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2479951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2479951","url":null,"abstract":"Small open economies within a monetary union have a limited range of stabilisation tools, as area-wide nominal interest and exchange rates do not respond to country-specific shocks. Such limitations imply that imbalances can be difficult to resolve. We assess the role that government spending can play in mitigating this issue using a global DSGE model, with an extensive fiscal sector allowing for a rich set of transmission channels. We find that complementarities between government and private consumption can substantially increase spending multipliers. Government investment, by raising productive public capital, improves external competitiveness and counteracts external imbalances. An ex-ante budget-neutral switch of government expenditure towards investment has beneficial effects in the medium run, while short-run effects depend on the degree of co-movement between private and government consumption. Finally, spillovers from a fiscal stimulus in one region of a monetary union depend on trade linkages and can be sizeable.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121067039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Policies on Slovenia’s Road to the Euro Area","authors":"K. Weyerstrass","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2240165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2240165","url":null,"abstract":"Since May 2004, Slovenia has been a member state of the European Union. Although trade barriers had been removed to a large extent with the progressing accession negotiations, participation in the EU is further fostering the European economic integration of the new member states. One important integration aspect concerns the monetary policy framework. This paper analyses whether the choice of participating in the ERM II in an early stage after EU accession was the best strategy in terms of the macroeconomic performance. It is shown that the best overall economic performance is achieved under a crawling peg regime allowing a depreciation of the Slovenian tolar (SIT) against the euro with a decreasing rate of depreciation. The worst policy results are obtained when the exchange rate is totally fixed at an early stage of EMU integration. The labour market performance can be significantly improved by cutting income taxes and social security contribution rates.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122413364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wage Policy in Austria and the Netherlands under EMU: A Change in Performance or the Continuation of the Status-Quo?","authors":"Alison Johnston","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2264186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2264186","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses how wage policy in Austria and the Netherlands was affected by economic and monetary union (EMU). The paper concludes that EMU and the macroeconomic shifts resulting from it have had little influence on wage-setting in Austria and the Netherlands. While wage restraint outcomes did diverge for both countries after the start of EMU, this paper will argue that different wage institutions lead to this divergence. The EMU’s new macroeconomic order did not significantly change either countries microeconomic wage institutions.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117169273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Reasons of the Collapse of the Ruble Zone","authors":"Marek A. Dąbrowski","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1312324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1312324","url":null,"abstract":"This paper has mainly a historical character and analyzes the causes of the monetary disintegration of the FSU, stages of this disintegration, and macroeconomic consequences of this process. The second section is devoted to a brief discussion of the economic and political condition of the successful existence of the common currency area. In section 3, I describe the process of monetary disintegration that already started at the end of 1990 when the Soviet Union still existed. Section 4 illustrates the process of monetary disintegration in 1992-1993, after the dissolution of USSR. Section 5 presents a picture about the most important initiative to rebuild the ruble area in 1992-1994. Finally, section 6 contains the discussion on macroeconomic and other consequences of continuing the common currency despite the political disintegration.","PeriodicalId":146720,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Monetary Union (Topic)","volume":"202 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132915153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}