EconomiA最新文献_第4页

Why public policies fail: Policymaking under complexity 公共政策为何失败:复杂性下的政策制定

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.11.002

Bernardo Mueller

引用次数: 42

The evolution of ethnocentrism revisited: An agent-based model with inductive reasoning 重新审视种族中心主义的演变:一个基于主体的归纳推理模型

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.005

Pedro Vitor Ramos Halbout Carrão , Mariana Wik Atique

{"title":"The evolution of ethnocentrism revisited: An agent-based model with inductive reasoning","authors":"Pedro Vitor Ramos Halbout Carrão , Mariana Wik Atique","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Studies on the social behavior and cooperation decisions of individuals within and between different ethnic or cultural groups have gained increasing importance in economic sciences, especially in the field of behavioral economics. <span>Axelrod and Hammond (2006)</span> developed an agent-based simulation model to better understand the fundamentals of this phenomenon. Briefly, this model simulates a world with four different neighborhoods, based in a square toroidal lattice shape, where a cell can be inhabited or uninhabited by an agent. The simulation takes 3 stages, Interaction, Reproduction and Death and Placement and get as main result, an ethnocentric agents dominate population based on the path of the agents. The present study aims to broaden the model created by the authors by adding a process of inductive reasoning for the decision making of the agents from the perception of the actions of the others toward him. Our main result are that individuals who understand and interpret part of the environment that are inserted and react inductively to it tend to be more cooperative to the detriment of discriminatory and ethnocentric behavior found in the original model. We also analyze the importance of agent perception in the model and find that agents that perceive and interact with a larger number of other agents tend to be less ethnocentric.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 297-310"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75935606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Of fairies and governments: An ABM evaluation of the expansionary austerity hypothesis 精灵与政府:扩张性紧缩假说的ABM评估

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.09.004

Adriano dos Reis M. Laureno Oliveira, Gilberto Tadeu Lima, Laura Carvalho

引用次数: 1

Genetic algorithms applied to an evolutionary model of industrial dynamics 应用于工业动态演化模型的遗传算法

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.09.002

Gustavo C.S. Passos, Martin H. Barrenechea

引用次数: 3

Limit cycles in a model of supply-side liquidity/profit-rate in the presence of a Phillips curve 供给侧流动性/利润率模型中存在菲利普斯曲线的极限循环

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.09.003

Ricardo Azevedo Araujo , Peter Flaschel , Helmar Nunes Moreira

引用次数: 1

Discussing the role of fiscal policy in a demand-led agent-based growth model 讨论财政政策在需求主导的基于主体的增长模型中的作用

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.004

Esther Dweck, Matheus Trotta Vianna, Arthur da Cruz Barbosa

{"title":"Discussing the role of fiscal policy in a demand-led agent-based growth model","authors":"Esther Dweck, Matheus Trotta Vianna, Arthur da Cruz Barbosa","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The global financial crisis led to a crisis in mainstream macroeconomic theory and to questioning the economic policies implemented before and after the crisis. One of the most relevant controversy concerns the role of fiscal policy. In order to present a different theoretical approach and discuss the role of fiscal policy, in this paper, we present an agent based micro-macro multisectoral model to analyze the fiscal policy in a complex evolutionary economy. We evaluate the impact of a set of different fiscal rules in terms of short run fluctuations and long-term growth. The main motivations are both to influence the public debate and to present an important theoretical tool. In terms of economic policy debate, in particular, we analyze the impact of the approval of a new fiscal rule that prevents any real growth of federal public expenditures for at least ten years in Brazil. Based on the simulation model, we compare 5 different combinations of fiscal policy on how they affect macro variables, such as GDP growth rate, GDP volatility and likelihood of crisis. We also test how each fiscal policy combination reacts to an external crisis. Results show that all scenarios that impose a tighter constraint to government spending present signs of self-defeating fiscal consolidation, including effect on firms’ indebtedness. On the other hand, unconstrained countercyclical policy prevents contagious effect of external crisis, leading to a better economic performance and reducing the likelihood of crisis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 185-208"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87687761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Macroeconomic impacts of trade credit: An agent-based modeling exploration 贸易信贷的宏观经济影响:基于主体的模型探索

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.002

Michel Alexandre , Gilberto Tadeu Lima

{"title":"Macroeconomic impacts of trade credit: An agent-based modeling exploration","authors":"Michel Alexandre , Gilberto Tadeu Lima","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper explores the effects of trade credit by assessing its macroeconomic impacts on several dimensions. To that end, we develop an agent-based model (ABM) with two types of firms: downstream firms, which produce a final good for consumption purposes using intermediate goods, and upstream firms, which produce and supply those intermediate goods to the downstream firms. Upstream firms can act as trade credit suppliers, by allowing delayed payment of a share of their sales to downstream firms. Our results suggest a potential trade-off between financial robustness as measured by the proportion of non-performing loans and the average output level. The intuitive reason is that greater availability of trade credit, which however does not necessarily imply proportionately greater actual use of it by downstream firms, allows more financial resources to remain in the real sector, favoring the latter's financial robustness. Yet, given that trade credit is proportionally more beneficial to smaller downstream firms, it enhances market competition. This results in a decrease in markups and thereby in profits and dividends, which contributes negatively to aggregate demand formation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 130-144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84341364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

The labour-augmented K + S model: A laboratory for the analysis of institutional and policy regimes 劳动力增加的K + S模式:体制和政策制度分析的实验室

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.002

G. Dosi , M.C. Pereira , A. Roventini , M.E. Virgillito

{"title":"The labour-augmented K + S model: A laboratory for the analysis of institutional and policy regimes","authors":"G. Dosi , M.C. Pereira , A. Roventini , M.E. Virgillito","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this work we discuss the research findings from the labour-augmented Schumpeter meeting Keynes (K+S) agent-based model. It comprises comparative dynamics experiments on an artificial economy populated by heterogeneous, interacting agents, as workers, firms, banks and the government. The exercises are characterized by different degrees of labour flexibility, or by institutional shocks entailing labour market structural reforms, wherein the phenomenon of hysteresis is endogenous and pervasive. The K+S model constitutes a laboratory to evaluate the effects of new institutional arrangements as active/passive labour market policies, and fiscal austerity. In this perspective, the model allows mimicking many of the customary policy responses which the European Union and many Latin American countries have embraced in reaction to the recent economic crises. The obtained results seem to indicate, however, that most of the proposed policies are likely inadequate to tackle the short-term crises consequences, and even risk demoting the long-run economic prospects. More objectively, the conclusions offer a possible explanation to the negative path traversed by economies like Brazil, where many of the mentioned policies were applied in a short period, and hint about some risks ahead.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 160-184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73861265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 16

Economic development and complexity: Introduction to special issue 经济发展与复杂性:特刊导论

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2020.05.001

João Basilio Pereima

引用次数: 4

Sectoral labour reallocation: An agent-based model of structural change and growth 部门劳动力再分配:一个基于主体的结构变化和增长模型

EconomiA Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.003

Francisco Adilson Gabardo , Gabriel Porcile , João Basilio Pereima

{"title":"Sectoral labour reallocation: An agent-based model of structural change and growth","authors":"Francisco Adilson Gabardo , Gabriel Porcile , João Basilio Pereima","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The shift of labour out of the agricultural sector and into the manufacturing and services sectors seems to be an important factor in explaining why some countries are so much richer than others. Therefore, understanding not only the driving mechanisms and forces behind the process of structural change but also how these mechanisms interact and reinforce each other becomes crucial. In the present work, we develop an agent-based model (ABM) where structural change is driven by income and relative prices effect. The income effect is generated by the assumption of a simple non-homothetic hierarchical demand structure where consumers spend their wealth following a particular priority ordering. The relative prices effect results from different sectoral productivity growth rates. The model is capable of theoretically replicating the dynamics of structural change where labour is reallocated across the three macro-sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and services. We have calibrated the model's parameters, so that the artificial employment share trajectories would match those of Sweden for the period of 1890–2010. The results suggest that, the income and relative prices effect are complementary in generating a process of structural change of the type experienced by developed economies. If some assumptions regarding agents’ behaviour and sectoral relative conditions are respected, the model shows that it possible to theoretically yield structural changes in an agent-based model focusing only on first principles such as tastes and technologies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100389,"journal":{"name":"EconomiA","volume":"21 2","pages":"Pages 209-232"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.econ.2019.03.003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74530825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4