Analysis of the Vaccine Effect on Infectious Diseases by System Dynamics Model

Abstract

What is the impact of vaccine research and development on the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and what is the path of the impact? In this paper, the vaccination rate and effective rate were introduced into the system dynamics model of infectious diseases, based on the prevention and control of epidemic situation in Hubei. And the simulation experiments were carried out on the prevention and control of vaccination. The study of this paper shows that comprehensive vaccination can reduce the peak scale of the epidemic by a hundred times, and the death toll can also be reduced greatly. The higher the vaccination rate and effective rate of the vaccine, the smaller the scale of the epidemic, and the shorter the duration of the epidemic. The vaccine effective rate less than 50% cannot achieve the effect of epidemic prevention and control, and the epidemic will continue to expand for a period of time in the early stage when the vaccine vaccination rate and effective rate are not high. Therefor there is still no possibility to relieve vigilance. We should continue other prevention and control measures, and strengthen the efforts on the research and development as soon as possible to improve the effectiveness of the vaccine.