Forest Fire Probability Prediction Taking Into Account Different Reasons of Anthropogenic Load

Abstract

This work is devoted to the creation of a probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger to take into account the various causes of anthropogenic load that lead to forest fires. Typical forested areas of the boreal zone are considered: Tomsk region (Russian Federation) and Vancouver Island (Canada). In addition, a description is given of a probabilistic criterion that takes into account the occurrence of a forest fire as a result of deliberate arson. The chapter presents the results of scenario modeling of forest fire danger. It is concluded that it is possible to modernize existing forest fire danger prediction systems in the USA, Canada, Southern Europe, Australia, and the Russian Federation.