Forecasting of Socio-Economic Security Indicators by Means of Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The method of exponential smoothing is widely used in the forecasting of financial and economic characteristics in different sectors of the economy, departments, etc. In the construction of a forecast model by exponential smoothing time series of characteristics of socio–economic security is smoothed with the support of a weighted moving average, in which the weights obey the exponential law. In this case, the following levels of the series are given significant values in comparison with the past, because they carry more important information to determine the predicted values at the level of socio-economic security characteristics.