PREDICTION OF VELOCITIES OF MODERN VERTICAL MOVEMENTS OF THE EARTH’S CRUST FROM GEODETIC, GEOPHYSICAL AND SEISMOLOGICAL DATA

Abstract

АBSTRACT. The paper presents the results of the study aimed at predicting velocities of modern vertical movements of the Earth’s crust, which used the approach developed by Professor G.I. Karataev. This approach is based on mathematical simulation of geological and geophysical phenomena and an axiomatic correlation model for predicting various parameters of the crust from the data on gravitational anomalies. We pioneer in using this approach to study the territory of Belarus on the basis of geodetic, geological, geophysical and seismological data, as well as modern models showing gravitational fields and topography. This paper presents regression equations between the modern vertical movement velocities, gravitational and magnetic fields, crust thickness, and topography data. These equations give reasonably accurate data for constructing a map of forecasted modern vertical movement velocities for the territory of Belarus. Our map proves that the approach based on a correlation model and a complex of geodetic, geological, geophysical and seismological data for predicting the modern vertical movement velocities is very promising and capable of improving the reliability of forecast mapping. It should be noted that other maps of modern vertical crustal movement velocities for territories, including the geostructural elements of different ages and different types, were constructed using the method of simple linear interpolation, which is highly likely to cause prediction errors. In such case, prediction of modern vertical crustal movement velocities should be based on established patterns and correlations between the crustal movements, geophysical fields, and development history of geological structures and their elements.