The regional economic impacts of climate change on family farming and large-scale agriculture in brazil: a computable general equilibrium approach

IF 2.3 4区经济学 0 ECONOMICS

Climate Change Economics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.1142/s2010007823500124

Tarik Marques Do Prado Tanure, E. Domingues, Aline De Souza Magalhaes

{"title":"The regional economic impacts of climate change on family farming and large-scale agriculture in brazil: a computable general equilibrium approach","authors":"Tarik Marques Do Prado Tanure, E. Domingues, Aline De Souza Magalhaes","doi":"10.1142/s2010007823500124","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the regional economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of crops linked to family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil. Variations in agricultural productivity estimated according to scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2014), between 2021 and 2050, were used as inputs in the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) AGRO-BR. The model presents regional configuration composed of the 27 Federation Units and 42 agricultural sectors, disaggregated into family farming and large-scale agriculture sectors. The results, in terms of economic impacts, indicate that the North and Northeast regions would be negatively affected, Midwest and Southeast would suffer moderate impacts, while the South region would benefit mostly. São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul would show economic growth, softening the negative impacts on national GDP, which would show a decline of 0,01% in both scenarios. The phenomenon could contribute to the increase of regional disparities and the deterioration of food security conditions in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":45922,"journal":{"name":"Climate Change Economics","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate Change Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007823500124","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"0","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper analyzes the regional economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of crops linked to family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil. Variations in agricultural productivity estimated according to scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2014), between 2021 and 2050, were used as inputs in the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) AGRO-BR. The model presents regional configuration composed of the 27 Federation Units and 42 agricultural sectors, disaggregated into family farming and large-scale agriculture sectors. The results, in terms of economic impacts, indicate that the North and Northeast regions would be negatively affected, Midwest and Southeast would suffer moderate impacts, while the South region would benefit mostly. São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul would show economic growth, softening the negative impacts on national GDP, which would show a decline of 0,01% in both scenarios. The phenomenon could contribute to the increase of regional disparities and the deterioration of food security conditions in Brazil.

查看原文本刊更多论文

气候变化对巴西家庭农业和大规模农业的区域经济影响:可计算的一般均衡方法

本文分析了气候变化对巴西家庭农业和大规模农业相关作物农业生产力的区域经济影响。根据情景RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2014)估算的2021年至2050年期间的农业生产力变化，被用作可计算一般均衡模型(CGE) agrobr的输入。该模型显示了由27个联邦单位和42个农业部门组成的区域结构，分为家庭农业和大规模农业部门。结果表明，在经济影响方面，北部和东北部地区将受到负面影响，中西部和东南部地区将受到中等影响，而南部地区将受益最多。圣保罗、帕拉纳岛和南里奥格兰德州将出现经济增长，软化对国民生产总值的负面影响，在这两种情况下，国民生产总值将下降0.1%。这种现象可能导致巴西区域差距的扩大和粮食安全状况的恶化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Climate Change Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

17.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Climate Change Economics (CCE) publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to analyses of mitigation, adaptation, impacts, and other issues related to the policy and management of greenhouse gases. CCE is specifically devoted to papers in economics although it is understood that authors may need to rely on other fields for important insights. The journal is interested in papers examining the issue at every scale from local to global and papers from around the world are encouraged. CCE is also interested in both original research and review papers and welcomes comments discussing previous articles.