Quantifying Who Will Be Affected by Shifting Climate Zones

Abstract

Climate change is altering the conditions to which communities have adapted. The Köppen–Geiger classification system can provide a compact metric to identify regions with notable changes in climatic conditions. Shifting Köppen–Geiger climate zones will be especially impactful in regions with large populations. This study uses high-resolution datasets on Köppen–Geiger climate zones and populations to quantify the number of people affected by shifting climate zones (i.e., population exposure to shifting climate zones). By the end of this century, 9–15% of the Earth’s land surface is projected to shift its climate zone. These shifts could affect 1.3–1.6 billion people (14–21% of the global population). Many of the affected people live in areas that were classified as temperate in the historical period. These areas are projected to be classified as tropical or arid in the future. This study presents a new metric for exposure to climate change: the number of people living in areas whose climate zone classification is projected to shift. It also identifies populations that may face climatic conditions in the future that deviate from those to which they have adapted.