Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)

Abstract

This research seeks to determine whether a new source of data from a monthly, nationwide survey of food consumers, the Food Demand Survey (FooDS), is a leading indicator of meat prices included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index. This study relies on consumers’ expectations about prices increasing or decreasing. For most meats studied, survey-based consumer price expectations Granger cause retail meat prices. Because the BLS releases price data with a lag, the survey data can be used as a leading indicator to project future retail price changes two times before the official government reports are released.