An Application of Expected Utility Modeling and Game Theory in IR: Assessment of International Bargaining on Iran’s Nuclear Program

IF 0.7 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

All Azimuth-A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI:10.20991/allazimuth.476858

Özgür Özdamar

引用次数: 2

Abstract

This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran’s nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran’s nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program.

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期望效用模型与博弈论在国际关系中的应用:对伊朗核计划国际议价的评估

本文介绍了期望效用和博弈论方法在IR研究中的理论基础。它接着探讨了它们在一个具体研究课题上的应用，即伊朗核计划的国际谈判。在这一应用中，文章使用博弈论的有限理性模型(称为期望实用模型)对伊朗核计划进行了预测(Bueno de Mesquita 2002)。分别在2005年12月、2006年9月和2007年3月进行了三次分析。这三种预测似乎都与现实生活中有关该问题的发展相符。结果显示，自分析开始以来，伊朗一直在失去国际支持，最后一项预测表明，所有主要国际行动者都支持伊朗的亲美立场。此外，上述三种分析都表明，俄罗斯和中国的支持对遏制伊朗核计划至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

All Azimuth-A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

30.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： All Azimuth is a bi-annual journal that provides a forum for academic studies on foreign policy analysis and peace research as well as theoretically-oriented policy pieces on international issues. We particularly welcome research on the nexus of peace, security, and development. We aim to publish pieces bridging the theory-practice gap; dealing with under-represented conceptual approaches in the field; and engaging in scholarly dialogue between the “center” and the “periphery”. We strongly encourage, therefore, publications with homegrown theoretical and philosophical approaches. In this sense, All Azimuth aims to transcend conventional theoretical, methodological, geographical, academic and cultural boundaries. All submitted manuscripts are subject to initial evaluation by the Editor. If found suitable for further consideration, manuscripts will be assessed through double-blind peer-review by independent, anonymous experts. All Azimuth is published by the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, a non-profit and nonpartisan organization dedicated to helping develop agendas and promote policies that contribute to the peaceful resolution of international and inter-communal conflicts taking place particularly in the regions surrounding Turkey.