Cereals Export Factors and Impact on Wheat Price in Russian Regions

Abstract

The study describes the problems of wheat exports from Russian regions. The Russian Federation is one of the largest exporters of grain. Taking into account the development of biotechnology in the world, this type of resource claims to be a «new oil.» In the light of this, the Government of the Russian Federation set the task of doubling the export of agricultural products and raw materials until 2024. At the same time, the most promising areas of export are determined – India and China. Speaking of the latter, wheat exports to China began in 2014 and by the end of 2020 accounts for less than 1 % of the total Russian wheat exports. It is assumed that export growth in the Asian direction should be due to the regions of Siberia (Krasnoyarsk Territory, Novosibirsk Region, Omsk Region and Altai Territory), which have never been the main exporters of wheat. In this regard, it becomes necessary to update the scientific provisions of the logistics doctrine based on the results of empirical studies of wheat export factors from Russian regions. The debate on this issue rests on different approaches to determining the significance of export factors. The article provides an overview of key modern approaches, including theories of export and production potential. Based on the integrated approach, as well as machine training methods, the study proposes an analysis of the array of monthly data by 72 regions from 2007 to 2021 years, which includes a set of parameters of export and production potential. As a result, a linear classifier model is proposed, which allows guessing the export status of the region with an accuracy of 96 % based on a set of factors. It is determined that market factors increase the probability of export, while factors of production potential (with the exception of flour production) reduce this probability. This conclusion supports the idea of an integral approach, according to which with the development of primary and deep grain processing in the regions, exports are expected to decrease, while the development of the «free» grain market and an increase in wheat reserves on elevators leads to an increase in Russian grain exports. Thus, taking into account these circumstances, proposals have been formed to increase wheat exports from Siberian regions, which make it possible to offset the negative impact of exports not on the price situation within the regions and to comply with the interests of domestic processors and grain traders