COVID-19: Putting Stock Markets Back on Recovery among the Crude Oil Producing Economies

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.43

S. Olakojo, A. Onanuga, Olaronke T. Onanuga

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

COVID-19 poses an unprecedented threat to components of global business cycles including stock markets, industrial production and employment. This study investigated its impact on stock markets of 24 oil producing COVID-19-hit economies in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Oceania and Africa. It examined the nature of asymmetry in the business cycles of the sampled countries and the impact of COVID-19 on the asymmetry. Switching regression techniques were estimated with data covering the period from October 1, 2019 to April 14, 2020. The results confirmed the presence of negative asymmetry in stock market cycles in 54.2% of the sampled countries, out of which 38.5%, 46.2% and 15.4% are high, middle and low-middle income countries, respectively. This is significantly connected to the COVID-19 pandemic for 29.2% of the sample. The expected duration of being in the state of low stock market performance, due to COVID-19, reduces with levels of countries’ income, if regimes are dependent. Opposite was observed if regimes are independent. Hence, the negative impact of COVID-19 on stock markets in lower-income countries will linger compared to higher-income countries. Reducing COVID-19-associated risks will go a long way to revive investors’ confidence in the market and help to restart the engine of economic recovery in the sampled countries.

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2019冠状病毒病:推动原油生产经济体股市复苏

2019冠状病毒病对股票市场、工业生产和就业等全球商业周期的组成部分构成前所未有的威胁。本研究调查了疫情对北美、南美、欧洲、亚洲、大洋洲和非洲24个受疫情影响的产油国股市的影响。它研究了抽样国家商业周期不对称的性质以及COVID-19对这种不对称的影响。使用2019年10月1日至2020年4月14日的数据估计切换回归技术。结果证实，54.2%的抽样国家的股市周期存在负不对称性，其中38.5%、46.2%和15.4%分别为高、中、低收入国家。29.2%的样本与COVID-19大流行密切相关。由于COVID-19，股市表现低迷状态的预期持续时间随着国家收入水平的增加而减少，如果制度是依赖的。如果政权是独立的，则观察到相反的情况。因此，与高收入国家相比，新冠肺炎疫情对低收入国家股市的负面影响将持续存在。减少与covid -19相关的风险将大大有助于恢复投资者对市场的信心，并有助于重新启动抽样国家的经济复苏引擎。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.