Climate index; Cold events; Extreme; Precipitations.

Abstract

The cold events and Precipitation conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems, and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and T min in a 1o x 1o grid covering Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above 99 th percentile for the 25 years period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated The trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to producing the cold events in Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations patterns shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in the last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in the last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq from a large-scale view. The cold events and Precipitations conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and T min in a 1o x 1o grid covering the Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above its 99 th percentile for the 25 years’ period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to produce the cold events over Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations pattern shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq a large-scale view.