Grain Market: Trends and Potential of Its Development

Abstract

One of the strategic directions of Ukraine's economic policy is providing food for the country's population and exporting surplus grain. At the same time, the grain market is a crucial element of the global economy, as it constitutes a significant part of world trade. Global changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have left their mark on the functioning of the grain market and determined the future trends of its development. The article aims to determine the main trends in the grain market, to assess the potential of its development in Ukraine and the world. The dynamics of prices in the world market of grain crops were evaluated, and its features and main development trends were revealed. An analysis of the production and sale of grain crops in Ukraine in 2019-2022 was carried out. It was found that in 2022, direct and indirect losses of Ukraine in the agricultural economy amounted to $ 6.6 billion and $ 34.25 billion, respectively. Ukraine lost the opportunity to export about 5 million tons of wheat due to the blocking of ports and the complication of logistics. However, thanks to the help of partner countries, Ukraine can continue to ship its grain to the world market. In addition, according to preliminary data for 2022, Ukraine lost at least 15% of its elevators, with a total volume of 9.3 million tons due to military aggression. The article calculates the cost of investments in constructing (restoration) elevator capacities necessary for Ukraine to store grain. For developing the grain market in Ukraine and strengthening the potential of grain production, an important factor is an investment and improving the material and technical base. Despite the difficult circumstances of wartime, in general, the grain market of Ukraine continues to develop. It has the potential for further growth, especially if the quality of products is improved and the infrastructure is improved.