Evaluating the Relationship between Consumer Price Index with Gasoline and Hog Prices in Vietnam

Abstract

This study examines the link between inflation with fuel prices and hog prices in the Vietnamese context using Error Correction Model (ECM). It reveals that the change in the current gasoline and hog prices will produce a positive effect on Consumer Price Index (CPI) values in the next month. Because of the high speed of adjusting CPI to long-term equilibrium, Vietnam’s CPI needs more than a month to reach this equilibrium. Taken together, these findings provide some suggestions for using the fluctuations in petroleum and hog prices as warning indicators for a more accurate CPI forecast in Vietnam. Moreover, it is recommended that other factors, for example, the changes in gasoline prices and hog prices, are added in predicting CPI.