Using "compartment model" dynamics to understand the transmission regularity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak period

Abstract

Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on a large scale in late January 2020, the relevant reports of COVID-19 dynamics modeling found that it was very important to establish an appropriate data collection system and scientifically deal with massive information for epidemic control. No matter in theory or in practice, the transmission and treatment of virus infected persons with the kind of nonlinear epidemic diseases are affected by various factors, multiple levels, and different prevention and control measures. After confirming the transmission route of "human-to-human transmission", the data change rules of confirmed cases and new cases of infectious population in China and in the early stage of the outbreak I - 40 d after the closure of Wuhan were analyzed. China has quickly adopted measures to control the spread of the virus, such as "city closure", "isolation", and "wearing masks", and has achieved phased success. In order to scientifically determine the degree of harm of infectious diseases, a simplified "two-compartment" model of "transmission phase" and "disposition phase" is proposed and analyzed based on domestic and international epidemic data. It is more practical to study the speed of virus transmission and the dynamics analysis to control the outbreak. Acceding to data from the Global Epidemic l'invonian Consulting Center and WHO. the growth Me 041 and doubling time of the total number of confirmed caws and the number of confirmed cases from the two sources have little change. The study found that the global propagation doubling time is significantly shorter than 6.27 - 7.03 d in China. indicating that the global propagation rate is significantly higher than that in China. K. fir and atonality rate of the total number of confined eases in Italy. Spain. and Iran are obviously different from the global data. The special mortality:ate is significantly higher than the global level, with 9.576s. 6.59%. and 7. Sets respectively. which is alined twice that of the world. Therefore. the study believes that it is the key to deal with the transmission pathway and could of the transmission rate.