Analysing terrorism from a systems thinking perspective

Abstract

Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking o"ers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their e"ects on the key variable—the political in%uence of a terrorist network. We also o"er insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with #ctional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.