Factors infl uencing transfer policy of football clubs

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to identify the factors that form the market value of a football player. The study tests hypotheses about the influence of individual characteristics (age, height, weight), statistical performance indicators from local and international competitions both at the club level and at the national team level, expert assessments from the FIFA sports simulator, as well as injury history on the transfer value of a player, the number of days until the expiration of the contract, the number of transfers and the characteristics of the player’s agent. The selection of variables for the final models is made according to statistical criteria, as well as using Lasso and Ridge regressions. The analysis uses a linear model as well as a Heckman model in various specifi cations. The study showed a signifi cant negative impact of injuries on the cost of a football player (a day in the hospital — 0.2% of the cost) and a positive impact of goals in EuroCups. In addition, the influence of agents on the cost of transfers of football players was revealed: large agencies reduce the cost of a transfer by 8%, other things being equal, but increase the probability of a transfer by 2%. The effect of "Neymar" is substantiated: prices in the football market after the transfer of a football player increased by an average of more than 20%. Peculiarities in the transfer policy of the clubs that planned to organize the "Super League" were also revealed.