INVESTIGATING THE EVOLUTION AND TRANSMISSION OF EMERGENCIES IN LARGE-SCALE EVENTS USING A SCENARIO-BASED REPRESENTATION MODEL

IF 1.3 Q3 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM

EVENT MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.3727/152599523x16847420514746

Ling Li, Haidong Zhou, Junna Meng, Yuan Chen, Bingsheng Liu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Emergency often leads to a series of derivative and secondary emergencies during large-scale events, which can cause severe losses of human resources and property, as well as negative social effects. This study aims to clarify the evolution and transmission mechanism of emergencies using a new scenario-based representation model, which enables decision-makers to deal effectively with various types of emergencies and thus achieve the goals of reducing potential risks, minimizing unnecessary loss, and maintaining public security in large-scale events. Then, based on this model and using the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics as an example, a hypothetical terrorist attack is proposed as the initial emergency to predict a network of subsequent emergencies. Furthermore, the rationality of the network built by the proposed model is verified by using the Bayesian network.

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使用基于场景的表示模型调查大型事件中突发事件的演变和传播

突发事件往往会在大型活动中引发一系列派生和二次突发事件，造成严重的人力资源和财产损失，并产生负面的社会影响。本研究旨在通过一种新的基于场景的表征模型，阐明突发事件的演变和传递机制，使决策者能够有效应对各类突发事件，从而在大型事件中实现降低潜在风险、减少不必要损失、维护公共安全的目标。然后，在此模型的基础上，以2022年北京冬奥会为例，提出了一个假设的恐怖袭击作为初始突发事件来预测后续突发事件的网络。利用贝叶斯网络验证了该模型构建的网络的合理性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

EVENT MANAGEMENT HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

30.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Event Management, an International Journal, intends to meet the research and analytic needs of a rapidly growing profession focused on events. This field has developed in size and impact globally to become a major business with numerous dedicated facilities, and a large-scale generator of tourism. The field encompasses meetings, conventions, festivals, expositions, sport and other special events. Event management is also of considerable importance to government agencies and not-for-profit organizations in a pursuit of a variety of goals, including fund-raising, the fostering of causes, and community development.