Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity

IF 0.6 Q4 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Research Letters Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.3178/HRL.11.121

Jung-A Yang, Sooyoul Kim, N. Mori, H. Mase

引用次数: 7

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new approach for model validation that can be applied to the projection of possible future storm surge heights (SSHs) on the regional scale. First, this study conducts a series of SSHs for the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula (KP) by six typhoons that produced SSHs over 1.0 m since 1979 and identifies the bias between simulated and observed SSHs. Next, formulas for the bias correction using a geographic parameter, in particular the coastline complexity factors, are drawn and validated. Finally, the effect of the proposed bias correction on projection of future SSHs is examined by performing simple tests to consider only central pressure drops to reflect the impact of climate change. It can be seen that the bias correction method considering the coastline complexity can improve the model’s accuracy by 14% to 23% and prevent potential overestimation by up to 20% of the maximum SSHs considering climate change effect on the southeastern coast of the KP.

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考虑海岸线复杂性的模拟风暴潮高度偏差校正

在这项研究中，我们提出了一种新的模式验证方法，可以应用于区域尺度上未来可能的风暴潮高度(SSHs)的预测。首先，本研究对朝鲜半岛东南沿海自1979年以来6个台风产生的超过1.0 m的SSHs进行了一系列的分析，并确定了模拟SSHs和观测SSHs之间的偏差。接下来，绘制并验证了使用地理参数(特别是海岸线复杂性因子)进行偏差校正的公式。最后，通过仅考虑中心压降来反映气候变化影响的简单试验，检验了所提出的偏差校正对未来SSHs预测的影响。可以看出，考虑海岸线复杂性的偏差校正方法可以将模型的精度提高14% ~ 23%，并防止潜在的高估高达20%的考虑气候变化对KP东南海岸影响的最大SSHs。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrological Research Letters WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

18.20%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrological Research Letters (HRL) is an international and trans-disciplinary electronic online journal published jointly by Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR), Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH), Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS), and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH), aiming at rapid exchange and outgoing of information in these fields. The purpose is to disseminate original research findings and develop debates on a wide range of investigations on hydrology and water resources to researchers, students and the public. It also publishes reviews of various fields on hydrology and water resources and other information of interest to scientists to encourage communication and utilization of the published results. The editors welcome contributions from authors throughout the world. The decision on acceptance of a submitted manuscript is made by the journal editors on the basis of suitability of subject matter to the scope of the journal, originality of the contribution, potential impacts on societies and scientific merit. Manuscripts submitted to HRL may cover all aspects of hydrology and water resources, including research on physical and biological sciences, engineering, and social and political sciences from the aspects of hydrology and water resources.