Predictions of cancer mortality in Poland in 2020

Central European Journal of Medicine Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI:10.2478/s11536-013-0307-x

P. Wojtyś, A. Antczak, D. Godlewski

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

IntroductionThe future burden of cancer deaths will be the effect of demography changes and the influence of the risk factors. Goal. Making prognosis of number of cancer deaths in Poland in 2020.MethodologyThese predictions of number of cancer deaths in 2020 (all cancers and the most frequent cancers for men and women) has been based on the historical trends of cancer mortality in Poland in 2001–2010 and the demographical prognosis made by Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba.ResultsThere will be 58 147 cancer deaths in men and 45 970 deaths in women in 2020. Compare to the period 2006–2010 the number of cancer deaths in Poland will increase by 12.0% for men and by 13.9% for women. In 2020 the big increase in number of deaths of melanoma skin cancer and multiple myeloma for both sexes, colorectal and pancreatic cancers for men and lung, endometrial and brain cancers for women will be observed.ConclusionsThe predicted increase in number of cancer deaths for Poland in 2020 will be the results of: the demographical changes, changes of the cancer risk factors, the participation in the screening programs and treatment improvement.

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2020年波兰癌症死亡率预测

未来癌症死亡负担将受到人口结构变化和危险因素的影响。的目标。对2020年波兰癌症死亡人数进行预测。方法:对2020年癌症死亡人数(男性和女性的所有癌症和最常见癌症)的预测是根据2001-2010年波兰癌症死亡率的历史趋势以及中央统计局使用Hakulinen和Dyba方法作出的人口预测。结果2020年男性癌症死亡人数为58147人，女性癌症死亡人数为45970人。与2006-2010年期间相比，波兰男性癌症死亡人数将增加12.0%，女性增加13.9%。2020年，将观察到两性黑色素瘤、皮肤癌和多发性骨髓瘤、男性结肠直肠癌和胰腺癌以及女性肺癌、子宫内膜癌和脑癌的死亡人数大幅增加。结论波兰2020年癌症死亡人数的预测增长将是人口结构变化、癌症危险因素变化、参与筛查计划和治疗改善的结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Central European Journal of Medicine 医学-医学：内科

自引率

0.00%

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审稿时长

4-8 weeks