The Historical Development Of Civil Aviation Security With Applications Of Time Series Modelling

Abstract

The examination of civil aviation security has started to be examined in more detail after the first successful sabotage event in 1971. The purpose of the study is to determine the affecting factors to the number of sabotage events between the years 1979-2018. The Vector Autoregressive Model was used to analyze this relationship. In the time series model, the series was examined beginning from the year 1979, the beginning period of the crew resource management concept. In this year, human factors also started to be examined in civil aviation accidents. While the number of casualties and the number of total passengers in the events negatively affect the number of sabotage in the short term, their effects disappear in the long term. It was found that the number of commercial passengers had a positive effect on sabotage in the short term. This situation suggests that sabotage events trigger terrorist acts against commercial passengers in order to make an impression in the world. For this reason, the rules should be structured in the most effective way to prevent sabotage events.