Growth trends for selected occupations considered at risk from automation

Abstract

Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have led to substantial concern that large-scale job losses are imminent. Selected occupations are often cited as illustrations of technological displacement that is or will become a more general problem, but these discussions are often impressionistic. This article compiles a list of specific occupations cited in the automation literature and examines the occupations’ employment trends since 1999 and projected employment to 2029. There is little support in U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data or projections for the idea of a general acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends pre-dating the AI revolution with respect to the occupations cited as examples. Offsetting factors and other limitations of the automation thesis are discussed.