The Periodization and Analytical Framework of Economic Long Waves: A New Study from the Perspective of Historical Materialism

Abstract

Proceeding from the perspective of historical materialism, this article examines technological revolution and industrial revolution as intermediate-level concepts for analyzing economic long waves, and reconstructs the political economy analysis framework of long-wave theory. Based on this framework, and in order to avoid a “mismatch” between economic long waves and the cycle of technological revolution, this article modifies the traditional method of periodizing economic long waves from trough to trough, instead employing the method of periodizing them from peak to peak as proposed by Perez. In this way, this article alters the periodization of economic long waves from the traditional five “inverted V-shaped” long waves to six “V-shaped” long waves. Within each industrial revolution, the technological revolution and institutional change that occur correspond to two “W-shaped” long-wave trends. Economic long waves are thus shown to be in essence external manifestations of the trend of evolution of the mode of production. In the final analysis, long-wave theory should not only reveal the decisive role of productivity and the mechanism of interaction between technology and the economy, but should also reveal the long-term changes undergone by politics and culture, and the laws that apply to them.