The Ukraine-Russia Conflict: A Way Forward

Abstract

The United States has a vital interest in the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the resolution of its conflict with Russia, which are key to de-escalating growing tension across the wider European and Euro-Atlantic space. Yet the conflict in Ukraine’s East has settled into a largely recognisable pattern: a new and very large “frozen conflict,” increasingly reminiscent of that in Moldova, Georgia and Armenia/Azerbaijan, where intense fighting at the time of the Soviet Union’s collapse was reduced by de facto cease-fires, but no effective long-term conflict-settlement mechanism was found. Washington should seek agreement from all parties to engage more directly in an OSCE-mediated process to stem the ongoing damage to European security, the deepening human and economic costs, and the threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty.