{"title":"Land-cover and land-use change trajectory hopping facilitates estate-crop expansion into protected forests in Indonesia","authors":"Yu Xin, Laixiang Sun, Matthew C. Hansen","doi":"10.1111/conl.12957","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Protected areas (PAs) have been regarded as a critical strategy to protect natural forest (NF) and biodiversity. Estate-crop expansion is an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia. Yet, little is known regarding the temporal dynamics of PA effectiveness in preventing estate-crop expansion into NF. We employ Cox proportional hazard models and their extensions to characterize the dynamics of estate-crop expansion into NF in Indonesia during 1996–2015. The results show that PA effectiveness in Sumatra decreased over time and became insignificant in 2012–2015. A multistate modeling analysis shows that hopping in land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) trajectories with shrub and/or bare ground as intermediates has decreased PA effectiveness and facilitated the expansion. Preventing LCLUC trajectory hopping becomes crucial to biodiversity conservation because it tends to occur at lowland forest, diminishing natural habitat area and increasing NF isolation.</p>","PeriodicalId":157,"journal":{"name":"Conservation Letters","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/conl.12957","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Conservation Letters","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12957","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Protected areas (PAs) have been regarded as a critical strategy to protect natural forest (NF) and biodiversity. Estate-crop expansion is an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia. Yet, little is known regarding the temporal dynamics of PA effectiveness in preventing estate-crop expansion into NF. We employ Cox proportional hazard models and their extensions to characterize the dynamics of estate-crop expansion into NF in Indonesia during 1996–2015. The results show that PA effectiveness in Sumatra decreased over time and became insignificant in 2012–2015. A multistate modeling analysis shows that hopping in land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) trajectories with shrub and/or bare ground as intermediates has decreased PA effectiveness and facilitated the expansion. Preventing LCLUC trajectory hopping becomes crucial to biodiversity conservation because it tends to occur at lowland forest, diminishing natural habitat area and increasing NF isolation.
期刊介绍：
Conservation Letters is a reputable scientific journal that is devoted to the publication of both empirical and theoretical research that has important implications for the conservation of biological diversity. The journal warmly invites submissions from various disciplines within the biological and social sciences, with a particular interest in interdisciplinary work. The primary aim is to advance both pragmatic conservation objectives and scientific knowledge. Manuscripts are subject to a rapid communication schedule, therefore they should address current and relevant topics. Research articles should effectively communicate the significance of their findings in relation to conservation policy and practice.
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